While the National Assembly must vote this Monday on the Social Security budget, the government is exposed to censorship. The question is whether Michel Barnier will use article 49.3 as he suggested.
The specter of 49.3 once again hangs over the National Assembly which must decide, this Monday, December 2, on the very sensitive Social Security budget. If the Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, decides to use this constitutional tool, the left and the National Rally (RN) will together support a motion of censure. But what will happen if there is ultimately no recourse?
Without a majority, in a divided hemicycle, Michel Barnier indicated last week that he would “probably, surely” use 49.3. But the left warned that this decision would trigger the tabling of a motion of censure, which the National Rally promised to support this Monday barring a “last minute miracle”, according to Jordan Bardella. A decision that could signify the fall of the government.
If Michel Barnier renounces 49.3 to avoid this, the text will be rejected by the oppositions since, as it stands, it should not be voted on by either the left or the extreme right. The bill on the financing of social security (PLFSS) would then leave for a new parliamentary shuttle.
However, this would not necessarily be safer for the government since the RN has judged this second constitutional scenario to be very complex in advance. The party believes that the parliamentary debate would only get bogged down, leading the executive to legislate by ordinance, as it has the possibility to do fifty days after the tabling of the text.
The government would then expose itself to another risk: that of seeing the deputies table a motion of censure on their own initiative, thanks to article 49.2 of the Constitution. In 1962, the government of Georges Pompidou fell in this way and not after recourse to 49.3.
The National Assembly must vote this Monday at 3 p.m. on the final reading on the Social Security budget. Jordan Bardella clarified that the RN could not vote for censorship “if Michel Barnier were to review his copy by 3 p.m.”.
The government “open to dialogue”
After having obtained that the government abandons the increase in taxes on electricity and reduces state medical aid (AME) for undocumented immigrants, the party demanded new concessions, in particular on the revaluation of retirement pensions. or a step backwards on the reduction in reimbursement for certain medications.
But, during the weekend, the Minister of Public Accounts, Laurent Saint-Martin, supported the text as it was validated by the joint committee, judging that “going back” on it “would be sitting on Parliament , democracy and deliberation.
This Monday, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon reacted on CNEWS and Europe 1 to the vote of censure announced by the RN, ensuring that the government remains “open to dialogue”. Suggesting that the executive could evolve on the delisting of medicines, she insisted on the fact that to find a compromise “it takes two”.
“The best interest of the country is that this country has a budget and does not sink into uncertainty,” she added, before asserting that “each deputy” from the left or from the RN voting for the censorship “will be held accountable in his constituency”.
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