Is the resignation of the Barnier government inevitable? Here's why it's possible

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Since Monday, November 25, 2024, the Senate has taken up the government's financial plan for 2025, ready to support most of the measures in this high-risk text for Michel Barnier, still threatened with censorship by the National Rally.

To validate a budget close to his initial project, the Prime Minister, deprived of a majority in the Assembly, is counting on the upper house, where his government coalition has a large majority.

Clear majority in the Senate

Rejected at first reading in the Assembly, it is in its initial versionthat submitted by the government, that the budget arrived at the Luxembourg Palace: the senators began examining revenue on Monday, before moving on to expenditure in principle next week. A solemn vote is planned on December 12.

“For the first time in at least seven years and probably ten years, there is a clear majority in the Senate to accompany and support – without complacency but in a positive way – the action of the government,” insisted in recent days Michel Barnier.

But big differences remain between the Macronists and the others

But other, more sensitive measures are nevertheless arriving in the 2025 budget, such as the “exceptional contribution” on the profits of large companies or the minimum tax requested from the wealthiest households for three years. Two devices far from being in the DNA of the right.

A sign that the balance of power differs in the two chambers: the Senate rejected a device proposed by the Macronist camp to tax alimony received by the parent having custody of the child, while eliminating the tax advantage enjoyed by the person paying it.

This measure, favorable to single-parent families, was approved at the end of October in the Assembly thanks to votes from the left – before the budget, as a whole, was rejected there.

Another divergence between the two chambers: the Senate rejected the idea of ​​transforming it into a tax credit tax reduction on nursing home stay costswhich would have allowed the poorest to also benefit. Here too, the measure had previously been approved in the Assembly.

Motion of censure almost inevitable

Thus, with all its stumbling points, it seems complicated for the government to succeed in passing its text without being censored in fine.

After the Senate, seven deputies and seven senators will try to find a compromise on the budget during a joint committee (CMP). If they succeed, the final version of the text seems promised in 49.3 when it returns to the deputies. And therefore to a motion of censure examined around December 20, 2024.

And the risk, for the Prime Minister, is real. “For the first time since Michel Barnier took office, there is a real risk of having a motion of censure against him,” underlined Olivier Costa, political scientist from the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) for a previous article.

What scenario for the government if the motion is passed?

But then what would happen if the motion of censure is adopted? “ In the event of adoption of a motion of censurewhether spontaneous or provoked, the Prime Minister must hand over to the President of the Republic the resignation of his governmentaccording to article art. 50 of the Constitution,” recalls the site vie-publique.fr.

The President of the Republic then appoints a new Prime Minister and, on the latter's proposal, the other members of the new government, as provided for in Article 8 of the Constitution.

But no text provides for a deadline for the constitution of a new government. Pending its appointment, the resigning Government therefore carries out current affairs.

And we know from experience that a government that resigns can remain so for a long time. Like the government of Gabriel Attal, which remained in charge of current affairs for 51 days this summer, following the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron.

With AFP

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