Population: The Hérault department will have more than 1.4 million inhabitants in 2050

According to INSEE, it is the department of metropolitan France, mainly Montpellier, where the population is increasing the fastest between 2015 and 2021 like Haute-Garonne. It accommodates 170,000 more households than in 2020. But accompanied, in certain places, by an aging population and a declining birth rate.

Hérault grows bigger and bigger. What Michaël Delafosse, the mayor of Montpellier, never fails to emphasize since his election in 2020, to explain that this situation, as beneficial as it is, creates needs for schools, roads, colleges, retirement homes, etc. . And cascading budgetary problems. Living environment, climate, landscapes, festivals…: this territory is always very attractive. But which generates anxiety in the face of numerous challenges: water resources and drought are the two most worrying. Not to mention the aging of the population and the decline in the birth rate already at work, especially in Occitania.

245,000 more inhabitants by 2050

The situation is so remarkable that the department is the subject of a detailed study by INSEE Occitanie which says: as of January 1, 2021 (latest figures established), Hérault has 1,201,883 inhabitants. Against 1,430,000 people in 2050 according to projections, or 245,000 more than in 2020. The population would thus increase on average by + 0.6% per year between 2020 and 2050, but half as fast as between 2015 and 2021.

The framework is set: “It is the department of metropolitan France where the population is increasing the fastest between 2015 and 2021, tied with Haute-Garonne (+ 1.2% per year). Hérault has a natural surplus (+ 0.2% per year) thanks to more births than deaths and a strong migratory surplus (+ 1.0% per year) due to arrivals far exceeding departures. The number of households, which corresponds to the number of dwellings occupied as main residences, is growing even faster than the population: + 1.8% per year between 2015 and 2021.”

Faster around Pic Saint-Loup and the Cœur d’Hérault

Over the next three decades, the population would increase faster in the hinterland close to the metropolis, that is to say in the territories of Pic Saint-Loup and Cœur d'Hérault, respectively + 1.1%. and + 1.0% per year, than in Montpellier (+ 0.9%). On the other hand, the populations of the Biterrois territories and the Etang de Thau remain relatively stable.

Strongest growth in Montpellier

But we can see sub-departmental disparities. Hérault is divided into eight territories made up of one or more towns. Unsurprisingly, growth is strongest in Montpellier, within the metropolis (+ 1.8% per year between 2015 and 2021) for the population and + 2.3% per year for the number of households (a single person, with children, or families of several people) . “The population is increasing at a rate close to that of the department in the territories of Cœur d'Hérault, Hérault Méditerranée, Pic Saint-Loup and Biterrois and more moderately in the territories of Petite Camargue, Haut Languedoc Ouest Héraultais and the Thau pond”, explains the study.

In 2050, 170,000 more households than in 2020

By 2050, growth in the number of households would continue but less strongly. If demographic trends and recent cohabitation behaviors continue, the Hérault department would then have 730,000 households, or 170,000 households more than in 2020 (+ 0.9% per year). And between 2020 and 2035, the growth in the number of households would weaken compared to that observed between 2015 and 2021 while remaining strong. The department would thus gain 7,500 households each year. Growth would be more moderate over the following 15 years: +3,800 households per year. The explanations are to be found in the aging of the population and dishabitation (1).

Montpellier alone would gain 93,000 households in thirty years (+ 1.1% per year) but would no longer be the territory with the strongest growth. Then, the increase would gradually slow down, from + 1.5% per year between 2020 and 2035 to + 0.6% between 2035 and 2050. The number of households would increase at a higher rate in the Cœur d'Hérault and Pic territories. Saint-Loup, + 1.3% per year on average between 2020 and 2050 despite a slowdown at the end of the period.

The phenomenon of decohabitation

Project manager of regional action at INSEE, Romuald le Lan explains: “Households will be able to increase more readily in the coming years than the population due to a phenomenon of de-habitation, in particular. Young people form couples; separate… We don't count the elderly characters in retirement homes.” He adds: “In 2020 compared to the previous year, we recorded 46,000 arrivals in Hérault, of which 39,600 came from another department in France and 6,400 from abroad.” Hérault and Haute-Garonne present the same demographic dynamics.

Births higher than deaths than in Montpellier

“From 2035, the arrival of the baby boom generation in old age would generate an increase in deaths”underlines the study. At the same time, births would decrease due to number of children per woman kept at a low level, as Dis-Leur explained to you HERE. Thus, the department, where births today outnumber deaths, would face a natural deficit from 2035. Only Montpellier would maintain a significant natural surplus until 2050. The territory of Heart of Hérault would maintain more births than deaths until 2040. In the territory of Pic Saint-Loupwhere the natural balance is in balance in 2020, deaths would be more numerous than births from 2030 and the gap would gradually widen. The other territories have a natural deficit in 2020, a deficit which would increase by 2050.

Inevitable aging of the population

Between 2020 and 2050, Hérault would gain inhabitants at all ages except between 18 and 24 years old. Of the 245,000 additional inhabitants over the period, half would be aged 65 or over. Montpellier residents would capture 60% of population gains. The other territories of Hérault would essentially gain an elderly population.

This aging would be more pronounced until 2035 everywhere in the department, and it would be particularly pronounced in Haut Languedoc and western Hérault, between Agde and Pézenas and around the Thau basin. In 2050, 38% of the inhabitants of these three territories would be aged 65 or over, ten points more than in 2020. Montpellier would remain a relatively young territory with half as many seniors as elsewhere in the department.

More and more people are living alone

Triste projection, “in Hérault, until 2050, more and more people would live alone”concludes the INSEE study, there would be 225,500 single-person households in 2020 to 334,800 in 2050 (+ 49% in thirty years). In 2010, 36% of households in the department were made up of a single person, 40% were in 2020 and 46% would be in 2050. In particular, in Montpellier, where half of households would be made up of a single person. in 2050. More and more seniors in Hérault would thus be living alone after the age of 65: 27% in 2050 compared to 22% in 2020. They would thus be 131,500 in 2050 compared to 82,800 in 2020.

France will have between two million and six million additional inhabitants by 2050, again according to INSEE.

Olivier SCHLAMA

(1) Aging and moving away from home explain a third of the increase in the number of households

The number of households, and therefore of main residences, is growing faster than the number of inhabitants. This results on the one hand from the aging of the population and on the other hand from changes in cohabitation behavior. So, “the increase in lifespan keeps more childless couples in housing and also leads to a greater number of people living alone. Furthermore, couples are forming later, separations are more numerous and the number of non-cohabiting couples is increasing. INSEE further explains.

Acceleration of the aging of the population and contributes to the increase in the number of households

Thus, in Hérault, a third of the additional households that settled between 2020 and 2050 would be due to the aging of the population and moving away from housing, the rest resulting from demographic growth. This is less than at the national level where the demographics are less dynamic and where the two effects of aging and moving away from home explain more than half of the increase in the number of households. The arrival of the baby boom generations at old age leads to an acceleration in the aging of the population and contributes to the increase in the number of households in all areas of Hérault.

The effect of aging on the number of households would be greater in Petite Camargue and in the Thau basin area and almost zero in Montpellier.. The effect due to changes in cohabitation behavior would be higher in the territories of Montpellier and the Heart of Hérault and weaker in that of the Thau basin.

Also read on Tell them!

Demography: The worrying drop in the number of births in Occitania

Populations: In Occitania, the revenge of villages and medium-sized towns

Demography: Despite the pandemic, births and fertility are maintained

Share on social networks: