Faced with the water stress situation experienced by Morocco, agricultural yields have experienced a significant decline. In this sense, the country has increased its cereal imports in order to guarantee the population’s supply of basic products. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), wheat imports into Morocco are expected to reach 7.5 million tonnes in 2024, a marked increase compared to previous years.
Morocco is going through an unprecedented water crisis which is hitting its agricultural sector hard. After several years of severe drought, the country is facing more extreme conditions than those observed during previous climate crises. This situation has made national cereal production particularly vulnerable, already weakened by difficult climatic conditions.
Data from the last five months shows that grain imports have indeed recorded significant increases. According to figures published by the National Federation of Cereal and Legume Traders (FNCL), between June 1 and October 31, 2024, imports increased at a double-digit rate for almost all categories of cereals.
Durum wheat imports saw a 69% surge, reaching 363,323 tonnes, the largest increase among cereals. Soft wheat also saw imports increase by 15%, for a total of around 1.95 million tonnes, while feed wheat imports increased by 50%. Corn, for its part, recorded an increase of 30%. On the other hand, barley is an exception to this general trend, with a 28% drop in imports during the same period. In total, cereal imports increased by 16%, for a total volume of 4.1 million tonnes.
Diversification of power sources
In parallel with the increase in cereal imports, Morocco has intensified its purchases of certain legumes and derived products in order to diversify its food sources for humans and animals. Imports of soybean meal increased by 32%, beet pulp by 22%, sunflower meal by 31%, wheat bran by 37% and finally rapeseed meal by 26%.
These increases demonstrate a desire to reduce the country’s dependence on a handful of basic products and to expand its sources of human and animal food. However, imports of some raw materials fell noticeably. Soybeans, for example, saw imports drop 61%, while corn gluten imports fell 78%, due to changing international prices and sourcing priorities.
Totaling products derived from cereals and legumes, imports increased by 18%, reaching 1.04 million tonnes, bringing the total volume of cereals imported to 5.1 million tonnes, up 17% per year. compared to the same period of the previous year. These cumulative figures show a general trend of increasing imported volumes, with a total of 10.8 million tonnes of cereals and derived products imported over the first ten months of 2024, an increase of 13% compared to 2023. This trend is particularly marked for durum wheat, whose imports increased by 30%, but also for corn and barley, which increased by 37% and 25% respectively.
Price stagnation on the global market
Despite this strong growth in imports, the prices of certain raw materials remain relatively stable. For example, the price of soft wheat remained around 270 dirhams per quintal at the port exit, supported by a system of restitution of customs duties on imports, put in place by the State to reduce costs for consumers and importers. According to Omar Yacoubi, president of the FNCL, it is possible that soft wheat prices will experience a slight drop, thanks to the abundant harvests expected in South America, which could increase global supply and, therefore, lower prices. price. Currently, soft wheat stocks in Morocco cover around 3.5 months of consumption, with around 1.57 million tonnes available.
The coming weeks will be decisive for assessing the impact of global harvests on the Moroccan market, particularly in Europe and South America. The National Federation of Cereals and Legumes Traders maintains a monthly import volume of 450,000 tonnes of soft wheat to meet national demand. The evolution of international prices, which should remain relatively stable in the coming months, offers an opportunity to relieve both public finances and Moroccan consumers, in a context of agricultural and climate crisis.
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