Be careful, one economic crisis can hide another. While the French debt is exploding, the deficit is worrying as it rarely is and inflation is still rampant, France is preparing to find an old companion of misfortune: unemployment. Shyly, the latter has been going back for more than a year. It had reached its lowest level since 1982 at the end of 2022, beginning of 2023, at 7.1%. Here it is at 7.4% for the third quarter of 2024, according to INSEE this Wednesday. And the announcements of
social plans of Auchan and Michelin last week, with nearly 3,700 positions in the balance, put the issue at the heart of the news. Is unemployment really back?
This question had punctuated the entire five-year term of François Hollande, to the point that “lowering the unemployment curve” – at the time with a two-digit number – was one of the conditions he had set for running again in 2017 – a failed bet. The term has practically disappeared since Emmanuel Macron took office at the Elysée, replaced by an opposite objective: achieving full employment, or less than 5% unemployment. A wish now admitted as impossible, since the Minister of Industry himself, Marc Ferracci, invited on France Inter Saturday, was very pessimistic: “There will probably be announcements of site closures in the weeks and months to come. »
Right in a pernicious circle
It's okay, can we freak out? “It is certain that unemployment will continue to increase,” predicts Marc Touati, macro-economist. According to the employment prospects of business leaders and that of households, unemployment should be around 8.5% next spring – summer. »
For the specialist, “France has entered a pernicious circle: the more unemployment there is, the less production and growth there is, and the more unemployment there is. With the number of people out of work increasing, debt increases, therefore interest rates rise, therefore there is less business investment, therefore fewer jobs to be had. France is on the verge of a social crisis. »
A truly catastrophic situation?
Christine Ehrel, economist and specialist in European labor market comparisons, is less apocalyptic: “The overall situation remains rather good. There was a very slight increase in the previous quarter, but only 0.1%. And some indicators are green, notably the employment of seniors, which is increasing quite significantly. »
Forecasts from the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) expect “unemployment to be around 8% at the end of 2025”. Increasing therefore, “but far from a catastrophic trajectory as we have experienced during previous crises. » The unemployment rate in France was above 10% in 2014, 2015 and 2016. It had also increased by two points in a single year with the unemployment crisis. subprime of 2008, going from 7.3% in the second quarter of 2008 to 9.2% twelve months later. “We’re not there yet,” puts Christine Ehrel into perspective.
A predictable crisis
But then, Armageddon or not, how can we explain that unemployment is back? For Marc Touati, still in a good mood, “it’s already a miracle that it took him so long to come back. » The specialist gives us some alarming figures: “France has just experienced four consecutive months of decline in investment by its companies. » The country is also experiencing extremely low general growth: 0.7% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024, a year notably driven by the Paris Olympic Games. Investment in housing has been falling for thirteen months, “a record since the statistics began, while France employs 1.2 million people in construction. »
“The country is seeing the collapse of zombie companies, kept artificially alive during Covid-19, but also during the inflationary crisis,” continues Marc Touati. With the gradual end of state aid, “these companies are withering away and dragging down companies in good financial condition, in particular by not respecting their orders”. “Whatever it costs” will only have delayed the inevitable, according to the specialist, “in addition to emptying the public accounts. The State today no longer has any financial room for maneuver in the face of the situation and can therefore only endure it. »
For Christine Ehrel, the return of unemployment is also explained “by the massive constraints weighing on businesses, in particular production costs in the face of international competition”. No doubt, the winter will be cold on the employment front.
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