why the deputies who support Barnier will reject the first part of the text

POLITICS – Fool's issues. After long hours of debate in the National Assembly, the finance bill takes a new step in the legislative process with the vote known as “ solemn » of the deputies, this Tuesday, November 12, on the first part of the budget, dedicated to revenue (therefore taxes).

Parliamentarians in the lower house completed the examination of the articles and some 3,000 amendments during the night from Friday to Saturday at 3 a.m. They are now called upon to decide on the version that emerges from these difficult discussions for the government and the supporters of Michel Barnier. For what result?

Barring any major surprises, the left will vote in favor of this first part while the National Rally could abstain or vote against. On the side of the “common base”, the alliance of Macronists and Republicans, the positions are clear: there is no question of supporting this budget. A singular outcome, but expected.

« How to vote on a text that will take France out of the EU? »

And for good reason: the version submitted to the vote this Tuesday no longer has anything to do with the text tabled by Michel Barnier and his ministers at the beginning of October. Over the course of victories gleaned by the oppositions, notably the left, billions in additional revenue have been voted for, and several flagship measures rejected. Exit, for example, the automobile penalty or the surcharge on electricity. Added, on the other hand, the so-called “Zucman” taxes (named after the economist who imagined them) on the assets of billionaires and on the profits of multinationals in France.

So much so that the groups of the New Popular Front are delighted to have made this first part « NFP-compatible »according to the expression of Éric Coquerel, the president (LFI) of the Finance Committee. He mentioned “60 billion in revenue” minimum, « recovered only from the very rich and very large companies ”, at the end of October HuffPostafter a first round of discussions at the Palais Bourbon.

Conversely, the “common base” parties – whose deputies have regularly been conspicuous by their absence, even on major votes such as the contribution to the European Union – denounce a “anything tax. » It is impossible for them to support the budget as it is.

“How can we vote for a text that will increase the cost of labor in the context we know? How to vote on a text that will take France out of the EU (the French contribution having been canceled by vote)? », insists the MP and spokesperson for the EPR group Prisca Thevenot, also criticizing “ several billion euros of additional taxes for all French people without distinction. »

What consequences?

What reason to foresee a rejection of this “recipe” part? In theory, the troops of the Barnier coalition are more numerous than those of the New Popular Front. If they manage to mobilize this time, the deputies of the right coalition – presidential camp will actually be able to defeat this version. This, even if the National Rally decides to abstain, after having widely criticized the additions obtained by the left.

For the government and its supporters, this outcome seems the most favorable. For good reason, if the first part of the budget is finally validated on Tuesday in the hemicycle (unlikely hypothesis, unless there is a turnaround), the deputies would tackle the “expenditure” section of the State, with a deadline deadline set for November 21.

On the other hand, if this first part is rejected, the entire text goes directly to the Senate, in its initial version (that of the government), without the National Assembly discussing the side “expenses” in session. Enough to clear the way for the Prime Minister?

In fact, if the National Assembly, divided into three blocs, is hostile to Michel Barnier, he has a very large majority in the upper house with nearly 250 senators out of 348, including around 130 within the Les group. Republicans, his own political family. Things therefore look easier for the government. But this breath of fresh air could nevertheless be short-lived, given the desire of senators to reverse certain budget cuts imposed on local authorities. This is the next episode.

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