In a constantly evolving international context, alliances and geopolitical issues are constantly being redefined. The re-election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States part of these major changes which will not fail to impact the balance of power between the members of the community of nations whose Morocco is part. According to Yassine El Yattiouian expert in international relations, this return, supported by a Republican majority in Congress, could offer an unprecedented opportunity to permanently strengthen American recognition of the sovereignty of Morocco over its Sahara. For him, the dynamic that this re-election will induce at the bilateral level finds its roots in a pivotal stage when, in 2020, the first Trump administration officially recognized this sovereignty, paving the way for an unprecedented rapprochement between Rabat et Washington.
Sustaining American recognition
Because, although this highly symbolic gesture brought hope, its sustainability can be influenced by the choices of the different administrations which succeed one another, observes the expert. As a result, Morocco faces a crucial challenge: it must ensure that this recognition is irrevocably inscribed in the American institutional framework. “In 2025, with a Republican majority in Senate and to the House of RepresentativesDonald Trump has the political levers to transform his decisions into concrete legislation,” underlines the expert, who is also secretary general of NejMoroc. Especially since the Republicanswith a tradition of strategic alliances both in Europe that in Africaconsider Morocco as a key partner to guarantee stability in this region. “By strengthening this partnership, the Trump administration could make recognition of Moroccan Sahara a pillar of American foreign policy, placing this position in the legislative texts so that it becomes a structural and sustainable orientation, beyond political hazards,” says Mr. El Yattioui. And the expert added that Morocco could propose to American legislators a formal text of law which would confirm Moroccan sovereignty. This act would have the advantage of perpetuating recognition and making it less vulnerable to a change of direction during future elections.
Influence on the position of the United Kingdom
According to our expert’s analysis, the clarification of the American position on the subject could have a significant impact on the influence exercised by Washington with the other permanent members of the Security Council of the United Nationsparticularly with regard to United Kingdom. Although the latter still remains cautious about the question of the Moroccan Sahara, it is beginning to understand the strategic importance of supporting a stable and growing partner in the region. Mr. El Yattioui emphasizes that a strengthened alliance between UNITED STATES and Morocco could encourage London to harmonize its position with that of Washington. Furthermore, economic considerations could also play a key role in possible formal recognition from the United Kingdom. Indeed, in 2023, nearly 25% of British investments in North Africa were directed to Morocco, a figure which illustrates the rise in economic relations between London and Rabat. This official recognition could thus be based on these growing economic ties, promoting political rapprochement between the two nations.
Economic benefits
Beyond diplomatic issues, the consolidation of this official recognition would have profound consequences on the Moroccan economy by improving its attractiveness to foreign investors. “In 2022, Morocco attracted $2.3 billion inforeign direct investment (FDI)with a significant portion directed towards southern regionsas Dakhla et Laayounewhich benefit from ambitious infrastructure projects. The support of the United States and other international powers for Moroccan sovereignty could strengthen investor confidence in the stability of these areas, thus propelling the economic development of these regions and increasing their competitiveness in Africa,” assures Yassine El Yattioui .
Advantages in the security area
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency could also further strengthen military and security cooperation between the United States and Morocco, as a strategic partner in the region and a key ally of the United States in the fight against terrorism and networks. of transnational crime. “By reaffirming Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, the United States and Morocco could strengthen their collaboration, particularly in border regions, to ensure enhanced stability in the Sahelan area increasingly affected by terrorist activities. This stability will benefit not only the two nations, but also Europe, for which Morocco is a bulwark against security threats,” comments our expert. As a reminder, the partnership between the two countries was notably strengthened with the establishment of the American-Moroccan Strategic Dialogue, a cooperation framework aimed at responding to regional and international security challenges. In 2021, Morocco dismantled more than 80 terrorist cells on its territory, a figure which testifies to its commitment to security.
Strengthening Morocco’s position within the African Union
According to our expert, American support would also strengthen Morocco’s position within theAfrican Union. “Sustainable and official support from the United States for the Moroccan Sahara would strengthen Morocco’s diplomatic influence on the continent, especially since this support coincides with the economic growth of the Kingdom and its rise in power as a strategic actor. in Africa,” he explains, recalling that in 2023, Morocco was among the five most dynamic economies in Africa, with growth of 3.2% despite the complex global context. “A strengthening of international alliances in favor of the Moroccan Sahara would give Morocco more levers to convince African countries of the legitimacy of its position and to counter the influence of its adversaries on the continent,” specifies Mr. El Yattioui.
Influence on voting in the UN Security Council
This dynamic could directly influence the vote in Security Council of the United Nationssupports the analyst. “With three permanent members – the Francethe United States and, potentially, the United Kingdom – aligned in favor of Morocco, the country would have solid international support, thus increasing its chances of seeing its position further legitimized at the UN. he. And to recall that among the 15 members of the Security Council, six had already expressed positions favorable to the autonomy plan proposed by Morocco. “This convergence of interests among the permanent members would offer Morocco the opportunity to advance the issue at the UN level, by directing the negotiations towards a political solution which ratifies the status quo under Moroccan sovereignty,” concludes the expert.
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