Bruno Le Maire and Emmanuel Macron, two suspects in the sights of the Senate investigation

POLITICS – A multi-billion question. The members of the Senate Finance Committee resume the work of their information mission on the “ deterioration of public finances. » With a central axis: understanding the causes of the slippage in the deficit this year (from 4.4% to 6.1% of GDP), and identifying those responsible for this situation.

In other words, those of Valérie Pécresse in this case: the senators will seek to know “ who burned the cash register. » Main suspect, already accused by the opposition and part of his own camp, Bruno Le Maire is questioned this Thursday, November 7 from 8 a.m. After him, the ex-tenants of Matignon Gabriel Attal will follow on Friday, and Élisabeth Borne on November 15.

The stakes are high for the presidential camp. It is, certainly for the former all-powerful minister for seven years at Bercy. But it is also for Emmanuel Macron and his supporters, who risk seeing their balance sheet be seriously damaged and their economic strategy undermined.

Was the Mayor slow to react?

Bruno Le Maire does not plan to wear the hat. The former minister, professor at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland since his departure from the government, is accused by the opposition and the right of having sought to conceal the state of public accounts, after having been slow to react on the extent of the gulf between the deficit forecasts and the actual spiral.

Since the fall of 2023, many have denounced its “ budgetary insincerity ”, even his company of “ mystification », like Jean-François Husson, senator LR in charge of these hearings. In this wake, Michel Barnier himself insists every time he has the opportunity on the situation “ grave » that he has « discovery » upon his arrival in Matignon.

Concretely, several media investigations revealed last October that the former tenant of Bercy did not immediately take into account the alerts of its own services, a year earlier. The New Obs asserts, for example, that the administration expressed its concerns three times in one month, without causing the minister to change course. A sort of wait-and-see attitude that the first person concerned has refuted since he was placed in the dock.

On a more political level, it is true that Bruno Le Maire is the first in Macronie to have warned of the need to work to restore public accounts. For example, he pleaded for the end of “ whatever it costs » when the time was for « checks » of all kinds to fight against the inflationary crisis, before imposing a 10 billion euro blow in February 2023, then pushing – in vain – for an amended finance bill in spring 2024. he will be sure to remind senators – and beyond – of this Thursday.

Macron will not be spared

According to The ParisianBruno Le Maire – who has already made known his desire to explain himself – would have the ambition to “ set the record straight with a scalpel », « faced with the torrent of lies and the brutality of the accusations. » Things can then get tough, especially for Emmanuel Macron.

The President of the Republic could indeed be attacked on three flanks. On its economic dogma, based on the supply strategy and the trickle-down theory, which did not produce the expected effects according to left-wing oppositions. On this, Bruno Le Maire will be the first support of the head of state. But also on more recent choices, and contested even in his own camp.

In this sense, the Minister of the Economy will have difficulty this time defending the President of the Republic's arbitration on the famous Amending Finance Bill. Emmanuel Macron effectively refused the principle of this text defended by Bruno Le Maire (and bringing inevitably unpopular measures) just a stone's throw from the European elections. The former tenant of Bercy also risks having difficulty explaining the choice of the Head of State to dissolve the National Assembly and leave in place an illegitimate government to make structuring decisions.

“This interrupted us in the public finance recovery plan”conceded former Budget Minister Thomas Cazenave in mid-October on LCI. As a foretaste of his hearing in the Senate, for his part Thursday afternoon? The leaders of the presidential camp have, in any case, not planned to bear the burden of this slip-up in the face of Senate investigators alone. Bercy's services, which did not shine in their forecasting exercise, or The Republicans and their costly desires for the 2023 budget, also risk joining the dock over the course of the various hearings.

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