Given the avalanche of reactions since this morning, from national to local, from the Elysée to… regional president Carole Delga… This is clearly a major, global political event, a shift that each camp integrated into its strategic equation for the future…
Let's open the chessboard: is there a before and after for the executive?
Emmanuel Macron was the second European leader (8:54 a.m.) after the Hungarian Viktor Orban (8:26 a.m.), to congratulate Donald Trump. Without even waiting for the final count.
Congratulations, and at the same time, an offensive press release, to say that with the German chancellor, he was going to “work towards a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe.” Message relayed by Michel Barnier, in the Council of Ministers, and his warning against “every man for himself”.
So, if I follow you, in the beginning, the acceleration of a pro-European agenda for all Europhiles?
Turn the crisis into a boon. Or how Emmanuel Macron's Sorbonne speech could find a second life, at the very moment when the French president is most weakened…
This is the ball also seized by Raphael Glucksmann, for whom the Europeans are now alone “facing their destiny”.
But how many divisions? We must see if Trumpism is not already turning the heads of Italian, Dutch, Slovak, and especially Hungarian leaders. With the temptation to go beyond Brussels to negotiate directly with the White House.
What impact on the left?
A sign that things are going badly, the defeat of Kamala Harris is already producing a settling of scores within the Franco-French left itself! It's this tweet from Jean-Luc Mélenchon…
Besides, I am opening a parenthesis, but from now on any politician who speaks on the “X” network must know that he does so via a channel close to the White House, since Elon Musk, its owner, will soon part of the Trump administration.
In short, Jean-Luc Mélenchon who writes: “When there is no longer a left, there is no limit to the right.” And the LFI deputy Antoine Léaument, for whom Kamala Harris lost because she “played Hollande”, a “soft path which brings the extreme right to power.” Irreconcilable Lefts, continued. The PS is currently convening an extraordinary executive committee to learn the lessons of the American vote.
And the agenda, on the far right, modified or not?
Intuitively, we imagine Marine Le Pen jubilant, she who dreamed, in 2017, of meeting Trump in his Tower. It's more complicated than that.
The true aficionados can be counted on the fingers of one hand: Eric Ciotti, Eric Zemmour, Marion Maréchal, Sarah Knafo, who salute the defeat of a “system”, of “wokism”, of “socialism”, of immigrationism etc… The path to follow for the rights in France.
But it is much more cautious at the National Rally.
And how is this explained?
Who will suffer from protectionism made by Trump? Made in France, our factories, our farmers. At that point, there will be nothing nice about Uncle Trump anymore. And on Ukraine, would the RN ruin all its demonization efforts to become Putin's cousin again?
Caution, therefore, and even a spectacular semantic shift! In his press release, Jordan Bardella said that this election should “sound like a wake-up call for us, French and Europeans”. That we must “rethink our relationship to power and strategic autonomy.” You heard correctly: the president of the RN copies and pastes Macronist concepts.
So yes, in less than 24 hours, Trump's victory pushes each staff to introspection.
Certainly, there is no equivalent of a French Trump, not at all of Trump mania (on the contrary, he worries!), but the ingredients of Trumpism are there: identity anxiety, migration, reality or feeling of being downgraded, nostalgia for a mythologized past. The same causes produce the same effects.
And the greatest democracy has just elected the man that the enemies of democracy around the world dreamed of seeing in the White House… In France, the test is 2027, or even 2025, if Emmanuel Macron dissolves.
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