There are still five games to play but the statistics are already going well. While the 4e Champions League day takes place this Tuesday 5 and Wednesday 6 November on the lawns of Europe, the statistician Opta predicts the chances of qualifying for the next round of French clubs represented by PSG, Monaco, Brest and Lille.
And it's not utopian, four out of four is possible! To do this, you will have to finish in the first 24 (out of 36). In 99% of cases, ten points should be enough according to Opta, which has computer simulated this new league phase 50,000 times.
Monaco and Brest close to qualification
By beating FC Barcelona on the first day (2-1), AS Monaco opened the doors wide. With seven points on the clock before the trip to Bologna this Tuesday (9 p.m.), Adi Hütter's players are only one victory away from almost securing their place among the 24. They are credited by Opta, before the match against at the Italian club, a minimum 95% chance of qualifying for the play-offs and a little more than one chance in four (26%) of directly validating the ticket for the round of 16 (top 8). The only downside for ASM is a schedule that gets complicated from the 5th day onwards with the receptions of Benfica (November 27) and Aston Villa (January 21) and especially trips to Arsenal (December 11) and Inter Milan. (January 29).
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Who would have believed it a few weeks ago, Stade Brestois is in the same position as the runner-up to PSG last season in Ligue 1. Eric Roy's Finistériens are only three points short, traveling to Sparta Prague this Wednesday (9 p.m.), to be among the 24 best European teams. “Now qualification becomes a goal. We must not hide and act falsely ambitious. But somehow it's good”declared the Breton coach after the draw against Leverkusen the previous day.
Opta ensures that Brest has an 87% chance of continuing the adventure beyond the league phase and a 12% chance of joining the 8th directly. But as for Monaco, the schedule will then get complicated with clashes against Barcelona (November 26) and Shakhtior Donetsk (January 22) and the receptions of PSV Eindhoven (December 10) and Real Madrid (January 29).
Lille in a very good position
Bruno Genesio's players were promised hell after their opening defeat at Sporting Lisbon (2-0). Yes, but there you have it, the Mastiffs have achieved the feat of successively beating the two big Madrid clubs, Real (1-0) and Atletico (3-1).
They therefore have, before the reception of Juventus Turin this Tuesday (9 p.m.), a 91% chance of finishing in the top 24. The probability of finishing among the first 8 is 19%. Because despite the reception of the Italians and a trip to Liverpool on January 21, the Lille schedule seems, on paper, the least complicated of the French clubs. They will go to Bologna on November 27 and will host the Austrians from Sturm Graz (December 11) and the Dutch from Feyenoord on January 29.
PSG under pressure
We wouldn't have counted on that at the start of the European campaign. Paradoxically, it is PSG, among the four French clubs, which finds itself under the most pressure after three days. With 4 points in three matches, and before the reception of Atletico Madrid this Wednesday (9 p.m.), the reigning French champion still has an 83% chance of qualifying and an 11% chance of avoiding a play-off by finishing in the top 8. Optimistic, when we know that in addition to the Spaniards, PSG will still have to face Bayern Munich (November 26), Salzburg (December 10) and Stuttgart (January 29) and host Manchester City (January 22) .
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