Suspense rises in the National Assembly
The Barnier government is under pressure, faced with the slow pace of discussions and a high number of amendments. This delayed the planned vote, raising questions about the government's possible strategies to pass the budget.
The available constitutional options, such as Articles 49.3 and 47.2, are at the heart of the discussions. Parliamentarians and political observers are scrutinizing every move, anticipating the direction this legislative standoff could take.
Article 49.3, a strategic map?
The use of article 49.3 of the Constitution remains the most debated. This measure allows the government to override the Assembly's vote on the bill by incurring responsibility. According to Anne-Charlène Bezzina, constitutional expert, this option seems to be the most likely given the current context.
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The government could choose to return to the original version of the text or integrate certain amendments proposed by the opposition and centrist groups. This gesture could be seen as an attempt at compromise, despite the authoritarian nature of the approach.
The possibility of article 47.2
Less likely but still possible, article 47.2 could serve as plan B. If the government lets the forty-day period expire without the Assembly having voted, the text is automatically sent to the Senate. This tactic could reduce the frequency of recourse to 49.3, which is often frowned upon by public opinion.
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The consequences of choosing this path would be significant, shifting the issue to the Senate where the majority is different. This could substantially change the content of the final bill, depending on which amendments the Senate chooses to retain or reject.
A budgetary crisis scenario?
If the budget is not adopted before the start of the year in question, the government could be forced to adopt a provisional budget. This scenario, although rare, has been observed in the past and could be repeated given current circumstances.
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This interim budget would focus primarily on the day-to-day functioning of the state, without allowing for new initiatives until a more comprehensive agreement is reached. It would be an admission of the inability to pass a comprehensive budget on time, raising questions about government stability.
- Article 49.3: force or strategic dialogue?
- Article 47.2: a legally viable loophole?
- Provisional budget: what implications?
- Impact on public perception of each option.
“The use of article 49.3 could be seen as a sign of weakness, demonstrating the inability to convince or compromise. » – Anne-Charlène Bezzina, constitutionalist.
Whatever route the Barnier government chooses, the next steps will be crucial not only for the adoption of the budget, but also for the political stability of the government. Decisions made in the coming weeks will undoubtedly define the political dynamics for the coming year and beyond.
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