While the hurricane season has remained modest so far in the Atlantic despite the violence ofHelene At the end of September, activity regained strength with numerous phenomena forming in the middle of the ocean: Isaac, Joyce, Kirk and now Leslie. These go directly north, so that they remain in the open sea and do not threaten any land. But, as they continue to head north, they encounter the westerly flow which crosses the Atlantic, which will propel them towards Western Europe next week.
Hurricane Kirk’s forecast path © la chain meteo / nhc.noaa
A parade of former hurricanes of which Kirk will be the strongest in Europe
Hurricane Kirk’s forecast path © Meteo Consult
The first ex-phenomenon to hit Europe will be Joyce in Ireland on Monday. Having once again become a simple depression in temperate latitudes, Joyce will cause a southerly flow which will bring great sweetness on our country as well as heavy rains in the southeastcoming up from the Mediterranean.
Then, Kirk will slowly arrive at the rear, passing north of the Azores on Monday, in category 1 or 2, causing heavy rain and large swells on this archipelago. Also progressing towards the British Isles, it could cause a strong storm over Ireland and England on Wednesday and Thursday. This situation will need to be monitored, because the low pressure core would be very hollow (between 965 and 970 hPa).
What effects to expect in France?
Wind gusts as Kirk passes © Meteo Consult
If the trajectory does not change by then, a large part of France would be exposed next Wednesday and Thursday, with rain and a strong gale. The threshold of the storm could be achieved.
The intensity of the winds will depend on two factors: the deepening of the depression (its minimum pressure) and especially the trajectory of the passage of the depression core. If it goes further north on the British Isles, our country would be less affected, because it is further away. But, if it circulates across France, our country would then experience stronger winds.
To date, and taking into account the modeling, the most probable trajectory would pass over the Channel basin. This scenario would then cause a strong gale from the Atlantic to the northeast of the country with southwesterly gusts of up to 120 to 130 km/h on the coasts, and around 100 km/h inland. This strong gale, even storm, will be accompanied by heavy rain and heavy downpours. The sea will be rough with the arrival of cyclonic swells of 8 to 10 m in the Bay of Biscay. The tidal coefficients will be very low (around 40), which will minimize the risk of coastal submergence.
The fact remains that at this deadline, many uncertainties persist, with certain scenarios seeing a trajectory towards Spain, others rather towards France and others on the British Islands, reliability is therefore still limited. We will specify the evolution of this tropical system in the updating of our next bulletins.
History on the British Isles
Remember that the return of old hurricanes to the British Isles is not uncommon at this time of year. The last strongest is Ophelia in October 2017 et Item in October 2023. Further afield, In 1961, Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland as a category 1/5, killing 18 people and causing millions of dollars in damage.
The north-west of France had been devastated by “the hurricane of 1987” in mid-October. But it was in reality a usual Atlantic depression which exploded on contact with a remnant of an old tropical storm under the influence of a jet stream very powerful. This is not the same system that is expected next week.
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