Milk is one of the main food products that is part of current household consumption in Morocco. This product is among the priorities of public agricultural policies. However, the major trends observed in the management of this sector require a critical assessment and an approach that takes into account current limits and medium-term impacts on natural resources.
In order to improve the levels of its self-sufficiency and consumption of dairy products, Morocco launched in 1975 a plan called the “Dairy Plan”, the major objective of which was to increase national milk production from 581 million liters to 2 billion liters in the year 2000.
For the implementation of this plan, the designers were precursors in the promotion of the sector approach in this component of animal production. Through its main areas of intervention, this plan has chosen to integrate the different links of this value chain via improving the production performance levels of the national livestock through genetic improvement, feed, health supervision of livestock and technical supervision of breeders. It is also worth mentioning the organization of milk collection circuits through the establishment, at the expense of the State, of a network of dedicated centers, the development of milk processing factories, as well as the the establishment of incentive measures in favor of the various operators in the sector.
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Despite the considerable efforts that have been made and the undeniable progress that it has actually made it possible to achieve, the “Dairy Plan” has not achieved all of the objectives assigned to it: the levels of milk production (1 .2 billion liters only, in 2000) as well as the consumption of dairy products by the Moroccan population remained below expectations.
In 2000, the Department of Agriculture developed a new development plan for the dairy sector for the period 2000-2020. According to this plan, meeting a nutritional demand is equivalent to a consumption of 90 Liter equivalents of milk per capita per year. On this basis, national milk production by 2020 was expected to be triple (3.6 billion liters) of that reached in 2000 (1.2 billion liters).
Achieving such a “nutritional” consumption target requires growth in national milk production of 5.8% per year. The areas of intervention selected for the implementation of this new plan are: regional specialization; continuing to improve livestock productivity; strengthening the role of professional organizations and encouraging partnership between professionals in the sector; improving milk quality throughout the value chain; the adaptation of incentive and protection policies for the dairy sector.
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Except that like the plan which preceded it, this second plan did not make it possible to achieve the expected production and consumption objectives. Indeed, according to the program contract signed on May 4, 2023, on the sidelines of the 15th edition of the International Agricultural Show in Meknes, by the government and the Morocco milk inter-professional federation for the period 2021-2030, milk production in 2020 was only 2.5 billion liters; the objective of 3.6 billion liters that it was to reach in 2020 would not be reached until 2030.
And if between 2008 and 2018 milk production increased from 1.7 to 2.5 billion liters (an increase of 47%), it will suffer a continuous decline, going from 2.55 billion liters in 2019 to 2.5 billion in 2020, 2.25 billion in 2021, 2 billion in 2022 and 1.96 billion in 2023, a drop of almost 25% in five years. Decrease which results from a reduction of around 13%, which the number of dairy cows has had to undergo since 2019, going from 1.91 million heads, to 1.72 million in 2021, to no longer be than 1.67 million in 2022, thus returning to a workforce close to that which existed at the start of the Green Morocco Plan in 2008 (1.61 million heads).
However, if since the launch of the “Dairy Plan” in 1975, the numbers of the cattle herd have not changed much (around 3 million head), its genetic structure has been profoundly modified: from 10% in 1975, the share of improved livestock (pure breed and cross breed) increased to almost 50% in 2000 and would be around 80% currently.
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This progression is consistent with the constant option, supported by the granting of substantial subsidies, of resorting to massive imports of pregnant heifers of high-potential dairy breeds and the use of artificial insemination as fundamental levers for the development of dairy production in the country. Over the last fifty years, Morocco has imported no less than 500,000 heifers, an average of some 10,000 heads per year!
-Faced with the particularly worrying situation which is profoundly affecting the dairy sector, the government has taken a series of measures to help breeders maintain and/or restore the production capacity of their herd and to make up for the deficit recorded in dairy products in relation to consumer demand.
In addition to the continued subsidy of compound feed for dairy cows since March 2022, as well as the exemption from the importation of simple feed and fodder in 2025, the government has carried out two revisions of the provisions governing the terms and conditions of granting State aid for the acquisition of imported dairy breed heifers.
The first revision was carried out through joint decree No. 650.22 of February 23, 2022, according to which the State subsidy will be paid during the two years following the publication of the decree in the Official Bulletin and within the limit of 20,000 heads, as follows: 3,000 DH per head for the first three imported dairy heifers, 5,000 DH per head of the fourth to tenth and 2,500 DH per head from eleventh.
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The second came through joint decree No. 1902-23 of July 21, 2023, which significantly increased the subsidy by bringing it to 6,000 DH per head, which will be granted until December 31, 2026 and maintained until the total number of heifers having benefited from this aid reaches 60,000 head. Thus, according to the President of the Maroc Lait interprofessional federation, the members of this federation have imported more than 24,000 heifers since 2022, including around 9,000 heifers during the first nine months of 2024. (Media 24 of October 17, 2024).
As it should be noted that the finance law for the 2025 budget year provides for the suspension, during the period from January 1 to December 31, 2025, of the collection of import duties as well as exemption from VAT. applied to breeding calves as well as heifers, within the limit of a quota of 20,000 head for each category. Finally, note that as part of State aid for the acquisition of purebred dairy heifers, selected and produced at the national level, joint decree no. 1903-23 of July 21, 2023 has fixed at 3000 DH per head.
Concerning the consumption of milk and derivatives, it increased from 50 liters equivalent / capita / year during the period 2005-2007, to 72 liters in 2015-2018, and to 74 liters in 2020-2023; consumption which could not be covered by national production and without recourse to imports, including during the period of implementation of the PMV. This was the case in 2012, when the government approved a decree suspending customs duties applied to the import of 20,000 tonnes of UHT milk to supply the market during the month of Ramadan. (La Vie Éco, July 12, 2012).
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In 2021, 10,210 tonnes of milk powder were imported. On November 17, 2022, it was decided to suspend until October 23, 2023, the customs duties and value added tax applicable to the importation of skimmed milk powder and butter, and their payment by the general state budget.
Since then, imported volumes have continued to increase and could exceed 40,000 tonnes in 2024. According to statistics from the Foreign Exchange Office, the first quarter of 2024 recorded imports of milk powder for the first quarter of 2024 alone. , or nearly 23,400 tonnes for nearly 690 million dirhams. It should be remembered that in principle, the use of this input is only authorized for the production of derived dairy products and, exceptionally, UHT milk during periods of reduced quantities of fresh milk.
The major trends thus exposed could be interpreted as the beginnings of the ultimate limits of the model that the country has long favored for the development of its dairy farming. Limits which appear insurmountable in view of the cumulative effects of climate change and the damage caused to natural resources by the deployment of inappropriate intervention programs, and the lack of territorialized agricultural and rural development policies.
