Initiated by Michel Barnier in October, rejected by the National Assembly at first reading, suspended after the censure of the former Prime Minister and finally taken up by François Bayrou, this finance bill (PLF) experienced a chaotic journey to Parliament…
Even if it was on another budgetary text, the Social Security budget, that the Barnier government was overthrown, there is no guarantee that the oppositions will let this PLF pass without batting an eye, quite the contrary.
Crucial for the proper functioning of the State which is currently slowing down under the exceptional regime of a special law passed at the end of the year, this budget represents an almost insoluble equation for the executive, deprived of an absolute majority in the National Assembly but ordered by Brussels to straighten out public finances.
“It is an extremely difficult exercise, very demanding, but which is obligatory. It is essential that France has a budget. A France without a budget means a France at a standstill and one that is also widening its deficit.”insisted government spokesperson Sophie Primas on Wednesday, judging “imperative” that the text can be promulgated before the end of February.
Bercy is targeting an effort of 32 billion in savings and 21 billion in revenue to reduce the public deficit to 5.4% of GDP in 2025, compared to a level of 6.1% expected for 2024.
Recovery
To achieve its goals, the government can count on a generally benevolent Senate. Dominated by a right-centrist alliance which supports it and also favors a logic of reducing expenditure, the upper house should adopt the draft budget very broadly.
“This budget begins the effort to redress the accounts. We are in a situation of extreme emergency and it is time to become aware of it, without sacrificing our convictions or aligning our red lines“, summarizes the general budget rapporteur Jean-François Husson (LR), who is leading the budgetary debates at the Luxembourg Palace.
For the government, the situation risks becoming complicated subsequently, with the convening on January 30 of a joint committee (CMP), a meeting of seven senators and seven deputies responsible for arriving at a compromise text.
If they succeed, the common version will have to pass the filter of the National Assembly in the week of February 3 for a final vote, or a possible return of 49.3, undoubtedly followed by a new motion of censure.
-After having convinced the socialists not to censor him on his general policy declaration, François Bayrou hopes to extend this draft agreement on his budgetwith concessions such as the renunciation of the elimination of 4,000 teaching positions and the move to three days of waiting in the public service, as well as the renegotiation of the 2023 pension reform.
But the score is still not there for the socialists, who will vote against the budget on Thursday like the entire left.
“Move the lines”
“The CMP will be the justice of the peace. Between now and January 30, there is the possibility of moving the lines. The budget will not be good, we know that, but we want it to be as bad as possible”assumes to the AFP the president of the PS senators Patrick Kanner, who calls for further progress.
Censorship or non-censorship? Within the New Popular Front, the Insoumis raised their voice against the socialists on Wednesday: if they reiterated their choice not to censor, the PS deputies “would definitely break up” with the NFP, according to LFI.
In the meantime, the left has been very heated by the latest developments in the budgetary debates in the Senate, with the presentation by the government of multiple “plane amendments”: additional budget cuts proposed at the last minute in almost all ministries.
Some 800 million euros on development aid, more than a billion on housing and ecology, 600 million on research and higher education, and a highly symbolic reduction in the sports budget per year post-Olympics…
Even on the right, these unforeseen arbitrations have sometimes raised eyebrows. Enough to foreshadow intense negotiations until the end.
