Despite the uncertainties linked to the agricultural sector, Morocco’s economic outlook for the years to come looks much more optimistic. According to BMCE Capital Global Research, economic growth could reach +3.9% in 2025, confirming the resilience of the Moroccan economy and its ability to overcome external shocks thanks to an ambitious strategy and appropriate structural reforms.
According to BMCE Capital Global Research, this recovery trajectory is largely based on structuring projects already initiated, particularly with a view to organizing the 2030 World Cup. These initiatives should generate substantial and lasting economic benefits, by consolidating Morocco’s position as a key player in regional development. Estimates from the Government Labor Observatory predict an annual increase in GDP of +0.5% to +1.0%, supported by the fallout from this global event.
BMCE Capital Global Research also highlights the Moroccan ambition to mobilize more than 300 billion USD in foreign direct investment (FDI) over 20 years after the World Cup, with an annual target of 5 billion USD by 2030. Achieve these targets would considerably strengthen the objectives of the New Development Model and position Morocco as a regional and continental growth hub.
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For BMCE Capital Global Research, Moroccan economic success also requires effective management of socio-economic challenges, particularly the purchasing power of households. The planned structural reforms, such as that of income tax (IR) included in the 2025 finance bill, aim to reduce the tax burden on the middle classes. By increasing the tax exemption threshold from MAD 30,000 to MAD 40,000 and reducing the marginal tax rate from 38% to 37%, the government hopes to stimulate domestic consumption, a key driver of a sustainable recovery.
The Moroccan national strategy benefits from a promising global context. BMCE Capital Global Research notes that global growth, estimated at +3.3% for 2025-2026, and the expected reduction in global inflation offer opportunities for Morocco to strengthen its exports and stabilize its import costs. This international situation could allow the country to capitalize on increased external demand while taking advantage of the stabilization of international prices.
-Strategic relationships and opportunities
Forecasts from BMCE Capital Global Research confirm that Morocco will continue to consolidate its economic relations with its main partners, notably the United States and the euro zone. By taking advantage of its free trade agreements and positioning itself as a logistics and industrial hub, Morocco could benefit from new international trade dynamics. BMCE Capital Global Research emphasizes the importance of Morocco’s integration into global value chains to strengthen its strategic role.
However, BMCE Capital Global Research warns of risks linked to global geopolitical tensions, such as a possible rise in oil prices or a decline in foreign investment flows. Internal dynamics, based on investment and consumption, will be essential to stay the course. Job creation, particularly in the private sector, remains a priority challenge to reduce the impacts of agricultural losses due to drought.
In this context, the central scenario of BMCE Capital Global Research anticipates a growth rate of +3.90% in 2025, largely supported by an increase in added value. These forecasts illustrate the solid foundations of sustainable and inclusive growth for Morocco.
