Would François Bayrou have won his daring bet? For the first time since the unfortunate dissolution of the National Assembly, a glimmer of hope was born this week to restore some political stability and horizon to the country. By driving a wedge between the PS and LFI, the Béarnais managed to overcome the vote of censure demanded on the very day of his general policy speech by Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party. By releasing a little ballast on the social aspect of the budget, health insurance reimbursements, waiting days for civil servants and above all by agreeing to restart work, “without taboo” but without promising anything either, the reform of retirement, François Bayrou has reset the clock of the National Assembly which now shows 10:10 a.m.: thanks to an enlarged central bloc going from the PS (- 8 votes) to LR. A relative majority, certainly very circumstantial and which in no way resembles a German-style coalition contract, but enough to be expected in the coming weeks or even the coming months.
France will therefore finally be able to have a real budget, at least we can hope, by spring. A budget whose coloring will be a little more rosy, with an overtaxation of the wealthiest and large companies, perhaps a new tax on wealth, a sort of ISF pledged to the left to pass the pill of 50 billion d euros of budgetary adjustment necessary to maintain the course of a public deficit of 5.4% of GDP compared to 6.1%. The spirit of responsibility finally seems to prevail and that is fortunate because the French are rightly beginning to worry about this political instability which has only worsened the economic and budgetary situation since this fall and still symptomatically no longer since the censorship of the Barnier government. This is fortunate because the risk premium on France's ten-year bonds has more than doubled since the dissolution with an OAT-Bund spread which is close to 90 basis points. And this adds to renewed tension on global bond markets due to fears that Donald Trump's protectionist policy will cause inflation to rise. With its 300 billion euro borrowing program, over-indebted France is doubly exposed to this tension which is eating into meager margins by weighing on interest charges on the verge of becoming the State's largest expenditure item.
On pensions, François Bayrou did not signal retirement, but skillfully returned the ball to the social partners' camp. Medef having indicated that it would not accept any increase in the cost of labor or reduction in the current output of the pay-as-you-go system, it is in practice a right of veto that the employers are claiming against any challenge to the progressive postponement to 64 years of age. of the starting age. The conclave with the unions will be able to negotiate for three full months with the doors closed, but it will under no circumstances lead to a return of the age question to Parliament. Which made LFI and the Greens say that the Socialist Party was smoked and bought cheaply… We will see during the congress of the rose party if this courageous position for once of the socialist leaders is validated by its activists. At stake is the status of the governing party of the PS which is finally breaking away from LFI. It remains to be seen what voters will think of it in the event of another dissolution.
Before discussing the terms of a revision of Elisabeth Borne's reform, the social partners and public opinion will have a new diagnosis on the state of pension financing. Unlike the COR or even Bercy, who have always looked exclusively at the private pension accounts, already heavily in deficit, François Bayrou wants to impose, via the flash mission requested from the Court of Auditors, that the “subsidy” be taken into account in fact” from the State to civil servants' pensions, of around forty billion per year, which is financed by all taxpayers, whether they are public or private employees. The approach is questionable from an accounting point of view, because we are mixing rags and napkins, but serves as an indicator of the fact that the employing State does not pay its share of contribution each year, leaving it the responsibility of the general ledger of the company. debt. This lack of transparency, already denounced by a former eminent member of the Treasury, Jean-Pascal Beaufret, in several notes, changes nothing for the private sector, but may force us to face the reality of the demographic imbalance of our pensions which are no longer sustainable. given the rapid deterioration of our public finances.
Let us remember that France is by far the European country where people retire the earliest, while among our neighbors, it is already 65 or even 66 or 67 years old. Let us also remember that civil servants, particularly civil service executives, benefit from a collective capitalization pension fund scheme, Préfon, which has always been ideologically refused to the private sector. It is not a question of substituting one regime for another and replacing distribution with capitalization but only of giving the same rights to all employees. The Medef has also hastened to rush into this breach, seeing in the reopening of the pension financing file an “opportunity”, this is the word of Patrick Martin, its president, to put the issue back on the table. negotiating pension funds. We will see if the conclave will put them on the menu of its feasts. As François Bayrou said on Friday, we can find the path to reconciliation around the coffee machine.
-While waiting for the black or white smoke of the conclave on pensions which will decide the fate of the Bayrou government, France has in any case three months to get out of the doldrums, to speak like the competitors of the Route du Rhum. Vote a budget and launch some projects. Because while France is standing still and seeing its growth become anemic (the IMF only forecasts 0.8% for this year, in a gloomy global economy, except in the United States), the world is accelerating and starting to Donald Trump time.
The president-elect will become the current president this Monday, January 20, and he promises to go quickly. With a stable majority for at least two years before the midterm elections, and almost all institutional powers, his administration will usher the world into a new era. For the better, if the ceasefire in Gaza allows peace to be restored in the Near and Middle East, and why not, in Ukraine. This still remains very uncertain and even Trump realizes that you cannot stop a conflict in 24 hours. But also potentially for the worse if he implements the brutal increase in customs tariffs promised during the campaign. Maganomics will undoubtedly be the main factor of uncertainty for the world economy with the United States increasingly determined to make America the dominant power of the “free world” again, even at the cost of discounts. in question under international law.
Whether it concerns claims on Canada, the Panama Canal or Greenland, we must take seriously what Donald Trump says, who will not hesitate to use the balance of power in his favor to shake up the world order. current. It will also be able to rely on the rallying of American big business, in particular the tech or financial giants, who are hoping for a great wave of deregulation which will allow America to impose its rules of the game and its innovations on the rest of the world. This is the case of generative artificial intelligence which is the subject of disproportionate investment, which is reminiscent of the gold rush with a speed race between tech giants. A sign of the times, stars of the sector, like Sam Altman (Open AI) or Mark Zuckerberg (Meta-Facebook) preferred to avoid the World Economic Forum in Davos to be present for Donald Trump's inauguration in Washington. The American president will nevertheless make a virtual appearance in the Swiss Alps resort by giving a speech early Thursday afternoon which we have no doubt will be highly anticipated and very disruptive. At least we will know this week with what sauce the American ogre intends to eat us. One thing is certain, Europe will be at stake for its survival in 2025…
