It’s no secret: the European automotive market had a difficult year 2024. This is mainly explained by the difficulties encountered by electric cars which have not convinced buyers due to high prices, but also deficiencies (range, charging infrastructure, etc.) which slow down the public. But that’s not all: according to the analysis company DataForce2024 was a bad year, as it suffered from a drop in disposable income due toinflation as well as interest rate students. Naturally, the removal of certain purchasing aid for electric cars in several countries has worked against sales.
The question on everyone’s lips is whether 2025 will get us out of slump ? And apparently, the answer would be yes if we still believe the data analysis specialist DataForce whose forecasts cover the 27 countries of the Union, but also the United Kingdom, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland .
A little better
DataForce forecasts growth for certain markets in 2025: theGermany could grow by +1.6% to reach 2.86 million units, the France by +6.2% to reach 1.83 million cars, the United Kingdom by +5.5% to reach 2.06 million units and Spain by +3.6% to reach 1.05 million . For Italy, on the other hand, the forecast models are mixed. Theoretically, the country should experience growth of +2.9% to 1.62 million cars. But certain parameters could lead to an opposite scenario and cause the market to fall by -30% to 1.11 million vehicles. Nothing is very certain.
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Other analysts also forecast growth. As Global Data which provides for a increase in sales of +2.4% in Western Europe, but provided that the easing of monetary policy is maintained (lower rates). Europe would therefore revolve around 15 million vehicles (utility vehicles included) and the planet around 90 million cars. S&P Automotive on the other hand, is more cautious and is counting on a the state in which of the market in 2025 due to an increase in car prices (taxes on Chinese cars) and a further reduction in aid for the transition to electric cars. Other parameters of influence: political uncertainties in France and Germany could also delay motorists’ purchases.
What scenario for Belgium?
What will be the situation in Belgium in 2025 ? Analysts don’t say it. Remember that 2024 ended with a drop in new car registrations to 448,277 units, i.e. the decline of -6% (around 30,000 fewer cars than in 2023).
Will 2025 be a better year? Apparently not. According to the projections of D’Ieteren whose brand portfolio covers nearly 25% of the market. The projections are based onPolaris 2024 study which highlights the new mobility dynamics in Belgium and gives a direct voice to motorists and citizens.
According to the analyses, we should instead expect sales of new cars to decline further in Belgium to stabilize structurally around 420,000 or 450,000 units annually, at constant population and economic activity (because population movements can modify the result). For what ? Well quite simply because mobility habits are changing, whatever anyone says. Jean-Marc Ponteville, spokesperson for D’Ieteren explains this development by the fact that “ 18% of Belgians were experienced shared mobility. Of course, the car will continue to play a central role in the lives of Belgians, but it will be consumed differently. The car will remain the main means of travel for 80% of people, especially for families with children. ” But several parameters will change. “We are going to slide towards a economy of functionality rather than ownership for mobility”, slips Jean-Marc Ponteville, adding that “the development of alternative means of transport (bicycle, shared car, etc.), the situation of cities which close their doors to cars, the reduction in number of kilometers traveled due to teleworking or lifetime “the superiority of electric cars are all elements which will weigh in the balance and which will probably lead to a reduction in sales”. So there is a real transfert modal.
The effect is simply mechanical: companies will space out their purchases while a shared car replaces around 10 cars new acquired property. So far, the Brussels Auto Show is off to a strong start, but this is also due to a catch-up effect after Covid years marked by shortages and rarity and a price increase. We will see if the results of the coming months will confirm or refute these projections.
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