Today president and CEO of the Foundation of Greater Montreal, Karel Mayrand has been a privileged observer of environmental issues for 25 years.
Just before the holiday break, some news that gives hope went more or less unnoticed. Canada’s GHG emissions fell in 2023 to their 1997 level, 27 years ago! In the murky atmosphere of a new Trump presidency and the rise of anti-ecological political groups in Canada and the West, this news has the effect of a great breath of fresh air. Climate policies work, against all odds.
We must take the time to carefully assess what has been accomplished in Canada in recent years. 1997 is the year the film was released Titanicthat of the death of Princess Diana. This is before the attacks of September 11, 2001, before the smartphone and social networks. This was the time when we still used road maps and landline telephones, when we inserted 24 or 36 exposure films into our cameras. Our TVs were big cubes and we could record our favorite shows on VHS tapes. The majority of players on the current edition of the Canadiens were not born.
Since that time, Canada’s population has increased by 33% and its GDP has more than tripled. The country’s oil production more than doubled between 1990 and 2022, and emissions from the oil sector increased by 83%. The number of vehicles on the road in the country increased by 50% to reach 25.7 million. Reducing emissions in these conditions is like doing a triathlon with a headwind and swimming against the current in a river.
Since their peak in 2007 at 774 megatonnes (Mt), Canada’s emissions have decreased by a little more than 10% in 16 years, and this reduction is accelerating with the entry into force of the measures adopted by the Trudeau government, including carbon pricing, phasing out coal, supporting renewable energy, energy efficiency and zero-emission vehicles as well as regulating methane emissions, to name a few.
However, this success must be qualified. First, part of the reductions made over the past 25 years come from the relocation of our industrial production to China and other countries, which has shifted the problem elsewhere. Then, we are still far from the emissions reductions that will be required to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. Basically, we would need to quintuple the pace, going from 5 Mt of reduction per year since 2007 to 25 Mt per year by 2050. This will not happen without profound transformations of our energy systems, our modes of transport and the planning of our cities. The task is titanic, but not impossible, and like any great transformation, it will come with its share of adaptations to change. What we call today the green economy is largely insufficient and only scratches the surface of the profound transformations necessary to achieve our targets.
Despite this observation, we can draw several lessons from the last 27 years, which chart the course for the next 27. First, it is now confirmed that it is possible to combine economic prosperity and the fight against climate change. Canada, the world’s fourth largest oil producer, has tripled its GDP (mainly thanks to the services sector) without increasing its emissions. It’s not nothing. Then, well-designed climate policies that address all of the country’s emissions work and deliver the expected results. By doubling our ambition, it is possible to implement tax, regulatory and financial policies that will accelerate the pace.
And precisely, another observation is that the energy transition is accelerating, under the effect not only of public policies, but also of green technologies which are now competitive and often even more affordable than fossil options. Solar and wind power are now cheaper than coal, electric vehicles cost the same as gasoline vehicles when their running costs are taken into account. These technological and economic advances are combining right now to bring us closer to a tipping point that will see change accelerate irreversibly.
Let’s take the example of the good old incandescent light bulb invented by Thomas Edison. It ruled our homes for over a century before being replaced by LED bulbs which consume 75% to 85% less electricity to perform the same function. In the space of a few years, incandescent bulbs disappeared from shelves. Two factors combined to cause this tipping point: the falling price of LED bulbs, which made them affordable, and the ban on incandescent bulbs. The same thing is about to happen with electric vehicles, which will replace gasoline vehicles in 2035, and with renewable energies which will replace coal and eventually gas.
One final observation is necessary. The main obstacle to fighting climate change is no longer economic or technological. He is political. The North American conservative movement advocates ideological blindness to climate science and maintains polarization to slow climate action. The climate issue is vital to the security of Canadians, in addition to being the greatest economic opportunity of our generation. Let’s agree on the goal and then discuss the best ways to achieve it.
I was 25 years old, in 1997, when I took my first steps as an environmental activist. I remember giving lectures on climate in front of a handful of people at the time with activist friends like Steven Guilbeault, now Minister of the Environment. In 2019, there were half a million people in the streets with Greta Thunberg. I am now 52 years old, and I have spent the last quarter of a century trying to move the needle on our GHG emissions. The journey we have taken is incredible and it shows that we hold in our hands the means to decide the future we want. It’s a matter of belief, determination and work. I will be 77 years old in 2050, in 25 years, and I am convinced that we will live in a world without fossil fuels.
