To dive or not? Will Doug Ford call a snap election in Ontario?

Despite the political turbulence taking place in Ottawa, Doug Ford refuses to give up on an electoral scenario this winter or spring. The Prime Minister continues to dodge questions from journalists, fueling rumors of an early vote in Ontario.

In front of the cameras at the start of the week, Doug Ford launched an appeal for stability. Shaken by the announcement of Justin Trudeau’s resignation and the threat of customs tariffs, the country needs predictability, believes the Ontario Prime Minister.

More than ever, the interests of Canadian workers and families must take precedence over political or partisan ambitionssaid Doug Ford shortly after Justin Trudeau confirmed his departure. Strangely, he didn’t want to commit to finishing his term, which technically doesn’t start until June 2026.

Behind the scenes, the Progressive Conservatives seem to be continuing their calculations, their analyses, looking for the opportune moment to call an election, even if there are still 17 months left in their majority mandate. Doug Ford calls for political stability, but could he turn around and plunge his province into an electoral campaign? Political observers and strategists disagree on this subject.

For political scientist Peter Graefe of McMaster University, the scenario of early provincial elections seems less likely now that the federal Liberals are looking for a new leader.

To have elections in the largest province at the same time as there is a resigning leader [au fédéral]it would still be a lot of unresolved political action in Canada.

The scenario remains possiblesays Peter Graefe, but it seems contrary to Doug Ford’s priorities as a trade war looms. And since the Progressive Conservatives spend most of their energies in this crusade against tariffs, their pre-election preparation inevitably suffers, according to him.

For other commentators, the upcoming departure of Justin Trudeau does not change the Ford government’s plans. The Progressive Conservatives maintain their position of strength against their adversaries, notably with better-filled coffers. The government has also already invested a lot in its pre-election phase with advertisements on television and on social networks. Checks for $200, described as electoral candy, will also be distributed soon to all taxpayers.

According to Liberal strategist Charles Bird, Doug Ford had better go on the campaign trail sooner rather than later, because once Justin Trudeau’s successor is in office, some of his attacks will lose their effectiveness. Doug Ford would like to campaign against Justin Trudeau and his recordunderlines Charles Bird, a record which includes the very unpopular carbon tax. A start of the campaign in mid-February, for a vote in March, is the most likely scenario, according to him.

Mitch Heimpel’s crystal ball offers him a similar vision. The Progressive Conservative strategist is banking on an early campaign early March, maybe earlier. His prediction is based on the advantages Premier Ford currently enjoys: his party has the best finances at Queen’s Park, and the majority of its candidates have already been selected.

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He also believes that Doug Ford will lose a favorite target once Justin Trudeau is replaced. It would be advantageous for Doug Ford to go on the campaign trail while Justin Trudeau still appears often on television as the country’s prime ministerhe says. Especially since it is difficult to measure the residual impact of Justin Trudeau’s leadership on the Liberal brand once he gives way.

A game dangerous

The benefits of an early vote for Doug Ford are obvious. Recent polls show him winning and so far, the opposition parties have not succeeded in destabilizing him. His government is also likely looking to secure a third term before the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) completes its investigation into the Greenbelt scandal. It is unclear when the federal police will be ready to reveal their findings, but it would not be surprising if Doug Ford’s entourage was shocked.

If the idea of ​​calling an early election in Ontario seems attractive to the Ford team, it remains a think-tank. Requesting a new mandate when the current one has not ended also carries risks. Political opportunism is never rewarded by Ontarianswarns NDP strategist Kim Wright.

Peter Graefe even speaks of a dangerous gamebecause voters could decide to punish a government obsessed with its sustainability, rather than with its responsibilities during a period of significant economic crisis.

To dive or not? The decision may not yet be set in stone. But if you see the Prime Minister increasing his trips and announcements in several regions of the province, you will have a good indicator that Ontario is heading towards the voting booth.