The liberal winter, the Champagne dilemma

Those who know do not speak, and those who speak do not know.

This is how Lao-Tseu philosophized, long before the invention of TikTok. The Taoist sage advocated inaction, like water that lets itself flow.

Only one person knows what François-Philippe Champagne will do: himself. His entourage assures that his decision has been made: he will not enter the race for the PLQ. As for the main person concerned, he remains silent. But he will have to speak soon.

Two Liberal leadership races will officially begin in the coming days: that of the PLC at the federal level and that of the PLQ in Quebec. Mr. Champagne dreams of governing Canada, while Liberals in Quebec dream – still – of seeing him lead their party. And there is another possibility: do nothing except finish his term as Minister of Industry.

After nine years in power, the federal Liberals are staring at a cliff. The position of boss suddenly becomes less tempting.

For Mélanie Joly and François-Philippe Champagne, there are two other obstacles.

First, the unwritten rule of alternation between French and English speakers which would work against them.

Then, the complexity of campaigning while being a minister. In 1984 and 1993, the Liberals and Conservatives held leadership races while in power. In both cases, ministers could participate without giving up their portfolio. But this still complicates an application. Especially for M^me Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, often travels.

The shorter the campaign, the more it will favor candidates who are already known and rely on a good network of donors and supporters, such as Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney or Christy Clark. And they will have plenty of time to devote themselves to it.

These are excellent reasons for Ministers Joly and Champagne, known for their political savvy, to think twice. They won’t go in without a reasonable chance of winning. Or at least without having a plan to take advantage of a second place that would position them for the next race.

It is in this context that the indestructible rumors about Mr. Champagne’s candidacy for the leadership of the PLQ are once again circulating.

A well-placed source in Quebec confirmed to me on Tuesday that he was certain that Mr. Champagne would pass. Others believe it is still possible. Or, to be more precise, they hope so…

One thing is certain, his candidacy would be welcomed with open arms.

It happens that candidates script their entrance on stage in this way. Friends “ask” them to take the plunge. Then, touched by these insistent and spontaneous calls, they agree to get started. For the good of the nation, it goes without saying.

In the case of Mr. Champagne, it is different. For several months, “old liberal hands”, as the late Jean Lapierre said, have been working to recruit him.

Last summer, Mr. Champagne closed the door. We also imagine that if his federal colleague Pablo Rodriguez ran for leadership of the PLQ, it was because he was convinced that Mr. Champagne would pass his turn.

To avoid taking any risks, Justin Trudeau ensured Mr. Champagne’s loyalty in the fall by appointing him co-president of the next electoral campaign. But since the announced resignation of the Prime Minister, this commitment no longer holds. Hence the return of the campaign to seduce members of the PLQ.

It’s one to midnight. There will be no time to build a team. Mr. Champagne could, however, bet on Karl Blackburn’s former team, which canceled its campaign in November for health reasons.

For the moment, two candidates stand out: Pablo Rodriguez, who has demonstrated his ability to win elections. And Charles Milliard, who has the charm of inexperience. But everyone I spoke to agrees on one thing: If Mr. Champagne makes the jump, he will immediately become the favorite. If…

Mr. Champagne has valuable assets. From experience. Roots in the regions. And economic credibility. He is as comfortable speaking with factory workers as he is with investors in a tie.

The painful return to balanced budgets in Quebec will bring public finances back to the heart of the debate.

The clash between the PQ and the CAQ will also encourage an increase in identity. The Liberals risk going under if they stick too closely to the multiculturalism of their Montreal supporters. For them, the best strategy would be not to judge the identity insecurities of Quebecers who, for example, are worried about immigration. And at the same time, to move the debate onto more concrete issues – the proverbial “real business” – in the hope that the fluctuating discourse of the Legault government on identity ends up tiring part of the electorate.

Even if Mr. Champagne seems equipped for this mission, a big drawback remains: we have never seen him respond to criticism on language, immigration and other identity issues.

For now, this is all hypothetical. According to his entourage, he would consider only one leadership race: that of the PLC. The suspense, if it exists, should not last too long.