Driven by a drop in key rates, the real estate sector begins a gradual recovery in 2025, despite a persistent imbalance between abundant supply and still timid demand. Overview…
The year 2024 will have been marked by a partial resumption of activity in the real estate sector. A trend which reflects a gradual revival of dynamics in a market still marked by the after-effects of the pandemic, having led to lasting stagnation in real estate loans. Several elements attest to this evolution. Starting with cement deliveries, recognized as a key barometer of activity.
According to data from the Professional Association of Cement Manufacturers (APC), cement deliveries in 2024 showed a notable increase of 15.19% in cumulative volume, compared to a year ago, to reach 13.6 million tons.
These data, provided by the main players in the sector – Asment Temara, Ciments de l’Atlas, Ciments du Maroc, LafargeHolcim Maroc and Novacim (member since January 2024) – reflect a generally favorable economic situation, supported by investments in infrastructure, a renewed interest in real estate, without forgetting the reconstruction efforts in the province of Al Haouz, severely affected by the earthquake which shook the region there is over a year old.
A timid request
That said, the gap persists between relatively abundant supply and demand that is struggling to keep up. According to the latest joint statistics from Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC relating to the third quarter of 2024, real estate asset prices recorded an average decline of 0.2% nationally.
In Casablanca, land prices saw their prices fall by 2.7%, while goods for professional use decreased by 2.2%.
“These developments reflect the difficulties of a market where local demand remains insufficient to absorb supply,” estimates a sector expert.
The ocher city is no exception to the rule. In Marrakech, the attractiveness of the sector rests on fragile foundations, with local demand being insufficient to ensure long-term stability. “The growth of the market owes a lot to foreign investors and buyers of second homes,” confides our source.
Conversely, Tangier stands out for its favorable economic dynamics which support the slight increase in residential prices. The city of the Strait benefits from structuring projects, such as the port extension and the development of new industrial zones.
These initiatives reinforce its attractiveness, and support a slight increase in residential prices (+0.6%). On the other hand, Rabat recorded a decline of 7.5% in the prices of professional goods, reflecting declining corporate demand. In Casablanca, the situation also remains worrying. Social real estate, long a driving force of the market, is experiencing a marked slowdown.
“The new formula for housing at 300,000 dirhams is struggling to appeal, due to a persistent gap between supply and the real needs of households. Despite the efforts of promoters to sell off their stocks through promotional offers, the results remain below expectations,” specifies this expert.
However, according to data from Bank Al-Maghrib, outstanding loans to real estate developers increased by 7.7% at the end of October to reach 56.4 billion dirhams, demonstrating renewed investor confidence.
-These figures reflect an apparent recovery, but they mask major structural challenges, such as the need for developers to adapt to expectations now focused on housing better adapted to new lifestyles and ecological imperatives, while responding to a demand still fragmented. The expectations of buyers, marked by confinement, are now turning towards properties better suited to new lifestyles.
“Buyers favor properties incorporating green spaces and modern amenities,” explains an expert.
In response, developers are striving to adopt a more qualitative approach, a sign of a market that is accompanied by growing interest in more sustainable practices. At the same time, strong territorial disparities persist. Far from the large cities which capture the majority of investments, rural areas remain isolated from current dynamics, their needs still being too little taken into consideration.
Moderate optimism
At the start of 2025, the real estate sector is generally recovering, driven by more optimistic prospects. The recent 25 basis point drop in the key rate, announced by Bank Al-Maghrib, opens encouraging prospects for real estate loans, long paralyzed by lasting stagnation. This slight monetary easing aims to revitalize a market in search of new life, which is likely to encourage both households and investors.
The Fogarim program, long presented as a catalyst for access to housing, particularly for low-income households, maintains a symbolic place in this landscape. Since its launch in 2004, it has attracted funding for more than 208,000 loans for a cumulative amount of some 33 billion dirhams.
However, its impact has been losing steam for several years, reflecting a supply insufficiently adapted to emerging needs and a demand weakened by fluctuating economic conditions. Real estate, once a simple economic lever, now tends to establish itself as an actor of social transformation marked by changes in consumption habits. Aware of this development, developers are beginning a qualitative shift, but these initiatives remain concentrated in large urban centers. Meanwhile, rural areas, often on the fringes of major investments, continue to face chronic deficiencies in infrastructure and suitable housing.
Real estate prices: regional disparities persist
The latest real estate asset price indices, published by Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC, confirm a general downward trend in the Kingdom’s main urban markets. In Rabat, prices fell by 0.6%, driven by a 7.5% drop in assets for professional use, while transactions plunged by 25.1%.
Casablanca recorded a more pronounced decline, with prices down 1% and sales falling 30.1%. Marrakech, for its part, shows a moderate decrease in prices (-0.5%), but a collapse in transactions of 53.5%, particularly in residential areas.
Only Tangier stands out with a slight increase in prices (+0.1%), although sales there fell by 9.6%. This global slowdown reflects a gloomy real estate climate, marked by contrasting regional adjustments.
Ayoub Ibnoulfassih / ECO Inspirations
