By Hubert Seillan, president of the France-Morocco Foundation, peace and sustainable development, lawyer at the Paris bar
The reliability of a probability is directly subordinate to these two data which since the dawn of time have fought against each other while enriching each other, I mean facts and ideas. The more numerous and verified the facts are, the more probabilistic calculation is able to produce certainties about the future. This is how it is, we can no longer hesitate, with schemes which prolong the global warming. On the other hand, when the factual data is under the influence of feelings or general and abstract ideologies, the nature of the intentions, generous or criminal, not important, the best probabilistic reasoning cannot lead to any tangible reality.
Because our calculation is essentially based on facts, the probability of definitive recognition of the rights of Morocco in its southern territory in this year 2025 is great. We have already shown this, in terms of space and time, in our book “The Moroccan Sahara (2nd ed. The Crossroads). There is no need to return to it on this day of December 31, 2024. These are the only facts of the moment that must hold our attention.
A question of method
But in use, the exercise turns out to be delicate. Indeed, updating the facts is not as easy as updating almonds and other chestnuts. In the social and political field, facts and ideas are so strongly intertwined and rooted that saying what is relevant to each can be the subject of many objections. In truth, ideas and facts live in a sort of permanent battle, ideas striving either to reduce or to prolong the expression of facts. Thus the analyst who wishes to construct objective reasoning on factual realities must know how to cleanse them of their ideological envelopes. Lawyers, because they are regularly confronted with this preliminary exercise of distinction, know how very complicated it is sometimes.
A method which obliges States and international Institutions
The dispute is brought before the Fourth Commission of United Nations. At the dawn of 2025, 17 territories are considered “non-self-governing”. 15 are Pacific Islands and the Atlantic. The 16th, Gibraltaris English and Spain and the 17th is the Moroccan Sahara. This geographical analysis allows us to observe that the Sahara is the only territory physically attached to the State which administers it. The scope of this physical connection, which was and remains the logical and obvious source of other cultural, religious and economic ties, deserves to be considered determining. This feature is unique. But it is not sufficiently emphasized in international bodies.
Another look at the factors born from colonization will usefully complete this cartographic vision. It is well known that France has created holds over Moroccan territories which today benefit Algeria, in particular with the region of Tindouf and undoubtedly the Mauritania. However, Morocco is respectful of the borders resulting from the colonisation.
The analyzes must also focus on the reality of what the sovereignty of the Kingdom has been over the centuries and to this day. The country has always recognized itself in its Sultan, today in its King, the synthesis of its sovereignty, and it does not matter whether some of its regions were held with a flexible rein (bled Siba) or administered closely (bled Makhzen) . Moreover, this historical indifference to the rigidity of the European concept of border can be explained by the fact that the Kingdom has always been internationally recognized as an empire.
To conclude with this hope for 2025, I observe that the facts are there! Let them testify! Let them demonstrate! It is the responsibility of the world to accept the lesson.
