London (awp/afp) – The dollar rose to a new high in more than two years against the euro on Thursday, driven by the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House, which plans likely policies to boost American inflation.
Around 3:10 p.m. GMT (4:10 p.m. in Paris), the American currency increased by 0.53% against the euro, to $1.0301, a new high since the end of November 2022 against the European currency.
The greenback also rose 1.06% against the British currency, to 1.2385 dollars per pound, after climbing to its highest since April 2024, at 1.2384 dollars.
“This is simply a continuation of the dollar's upward trend seen in the second half of last year, particularly after Donald Trump's victory,” said AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould. , interviewed by AFP.
This movement was accentuated on Thursday by the surprising drop in applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. 211,000 were recorded during the week ending December 28, the lowest since April 2024, and a positive signal for the American economy.
The American Federal Reserve (Fed) is now only considering two interest rate cuts this year, compared to four previously projected.
Analysts say the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to cut rates at a faster pace than the Fed, given weak growth in the eurozone, where inflation is hovering near the 2% target set by the the ECB.
On the Bank of England (BoE) side, the market still projects two to three cuts in 2025.
The pound is also suffering from sluggish economic activity in the United Kingdom, where growth remained zero in the third quarter and where large tax increases announced by the Labor government are worrying businesses for the year to come.
Conversely, the Japanese currency increased by 0.18% against the greenback, to 156.96 yen per dollar.
Based on Japanese economists, the Japan Times estimated on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to raise rates two or three times this year, which could bring the key rate to 1.00% for the first time since three decades.
Since March, the BoJ has begun normalizing its monetary policy by raising its rates twice in 2024. But during its last meeting in December, its governor Kazuo Ueda spoke of a prolonged pause in monetary policy tightening, given the climate economic uncertainty.
The persistent weakness of the yen could, however, “increase pressure on the BoJ to raise its rates” from January, judged Lee Hardman, analyst at MUFG.
Cours de jeudi Cours de mercredi 15H10 GMT 22H00 GMT EUR/USD 1,0301 1,0356 EUR/JPY 161,69 162,52 EUR/CHF 0,9371 0,9386 EUR/GBP 0,8317 0,8274 USD/JPY 156,96 156,94 USD/CHF 0,9097 0,9063 GBP/USD 1,2385 1,2517
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