WASHINGTON — Donald Trump had a big smile on his face in front of his supporters after millions of Americans went to the polls to choose the controversial Republican leader as the next president of the United States in a stunning comeback that signals an American shift toward isolationism, protectionism and tariffs.
“We overcame obstacles that no one thought possible and it is now clear that we have accomplished the most incredible political thing. Look what happened, isn’t it crazy?” Mr. Trump rejoiced on November 6 in Florida, seeming shocked by his victories in certain key states.
“This is a political victory our country has never seen before, nothing like it.”
Donald Trump has yet to move into the White House, but his victory has sent shockwaves around the world. Less than a month after the election, the president-elect brought back his “Twitter diplomacy,” posting on social media threats to impose devastating 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
“This sense that Canada was a special friend and therefore protected, I think, is dead,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “There’s still something special, but it’s not the bulletproof shield we all thought it was.”
Explosive political events in Ottawa this month have added even more uncertainty to Canada-U.S. relations. Chrystia Freeland’s sudden resignation as finance minister has sparked growing calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign, a decision he is mulling over over the holidays.
As the world prepares for a second Trump administration, experts say there are lessons to be learned from the tumultuous 2024 campaign.
An unusual campaign
The road to the polls was long and bumpy. Let’s go back to the spring, when many Americans, unhappy with what they saw as a repeat of the 2020 election between Mr. Trump and President Joe Biden, were not engaged with either party.
Everything changed during the June 27 presidential debate. Behind-the-scenes concerns about the Democrat’s age and mental acuity were on full display. Mr. Biden, in a hoarse voice, stumbled over his words and lost his train of thought.
Questions grew about whether he could remain on the ticket.
A few weeks later, a gunman opened fire at a Mr. Trump rally in Pennsylvania. The image that surfaced after the assassination attempt was striking: the Republican raising his fist in the air with an American flag in the background as blood ran down the side of his face.
It was a decisive moment, contrasting with the rise of Donald Trump against his weakened Democratic opponent.
Shortly thereafter, President Biden gave in to pressure from his own party. He supported Kamala Harris, his number two, as he dropped out of the race on July 21.
The vice president moved quickly to shore up support, and her first campaign relied on the idea of bringing joy. She did this by talking about kitchen issues, using memes, celebrities and coconuts. While this reinvigorated Democrats, the enthusiasm did not spread beyond the party base.
Ms. Harris continued to be dogged by the Biden administration’s legacy on the border and she failed to win over voters concerned about their wallets during the 107-day campaign.
Mr. Trump was able to respond to Americans’ fears about the economy and illegal immigration while promising to reduce federal spending. He promised drastic customs duties and a withdrawal from international institutions.
“I will govern according to a simple motto: promises made, promises kept. We will keep our promises,” declared the president-elect in his victory speech.
The dismissive attitude toward Mr. Trump “died this year, too,” Sands said.
“Even though it took time, there is a recognition that he represents something genuine and that he has political support.”
A profound change
The American system of government is going through a change that only happens once in a generation, said Alasdair Roberts, professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. Ideas about what government should do are changing in fundamental ways.
This happened in the 1930s with former President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal programs to help people recover from the Great Depression. Another shift occurred in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan with the advent of market-oriented policies.
Donald Trump was able to ride a wave of dissatisfaction that has ignited since the global financial crisis that began in 2007. Data from Gallup shows that people have felt that the country is going in the wrong direction since at least least 20 years old.
The result: a deeply divided United States.
Mr. Roberts said Canada will have to deal with the fact that its closest neighbor and largest trading partner will be “unstable and unpredictable for years to come.” Banking Canada’s future on the notion of a shared special relationship is simply “a recipe for disaster,” he added. We have to pull ourselves together.”
This means more intensive diplomacy, he believes. The Canadian federal government team communicated with all levels of U.S. elected officials from both parties for months before the election and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau relaunched a cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations just over 24 hours ago after the Republican’s victory.
Mr. Trudeau also visited Mar-a-Lago for dinner with the president-elect last month.
Mr. Sands believes that Canada plays a good defensive role, but that Ottawa cannot simply “prevent bad things from happening.”
Ottawa must demonstrate that Canada is a valuable partner. If Canada faces budgetary or regulatory constraints, Sands says, the United States will start looking elsewhere.
This could be difficult in the face of new threats to overthrow the Liberal government, Mr. Trudeau’s leadership on hold and the strong potential for a change of government when Canadians go to the polls in 2025.
U.S. lawmakers have increasingly doubted during the Biden administration whether Canada can actually do things to help the United States, he added.
For example, Sands said Canada talks a lot about critical minerals, but more can be done to provide the sought-after resource. He noted that the U.S. Department of Defense has made significant investments in Canadian mining through the Joint U.S.-Canada Critical Minerals Action Plan.
Canada can also be a proactive partner in the regulation of artificial intelligence or in the Indo-Pacific region.
“A lot is at stake right now,” Sands concluded.
