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The year 2025 is looming on the horizon, and with it, prospects for change regarding electricity and gas. After months of unpredictable fluctuations and increases, one question remains: should we expect increases or decreases in 2025?
With the end of the price shield, some consumers could finally breathe, but for others, good news may be rare. Here are some explanations taken from information from MoneyVox.
Increases to be expected, but also decreases
Electricity in 2025 promises to be full of contrasts. While some will see their bills drop, others will have to prepare for increases.
Firstly, the end of tariff shieldintroduced to protect consumers during the energy crisis, marks a turning point. This shield, which has limited increases in electricity prices, will disappear definitively.
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Furthermore, certain increases will continue to increase household bills. A striking example is the expected increase in excise duty on electricity. The TICFE, this tax paid by all consumers, should increase to 32 euros per MWh, compared to 21 euros today.
If you are an average consumer, using around 8,500 kWh per year, this increase will have a major impact on you. According to MoneyVoxa increase of more than 100 euros per year on your electricity bill is looming. Although this tax has been reduced under pressure from the opposition, its impact will be very real.
Electricity prices that remain advantageous
However, there is also good news. Households having opted for offers at regulated or indexed rates will see a significant reduction in their bill. This is thanks to the continued decline in wholesale electricity prices over the past few years.
Reductions should avoid 14% from February 2025, confirms MoneyVox. A rather well-received news, especially after years of continuous rise.
However, not everyone will benefit from these reductions. Those who chose offers at fixed prices, or with higher pricesrisk seeing their bills increase.
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Another increase influencing electricity
Another important factor that will impact the electricity bill in 2025 is the Tariff for the Use of Public Electricity Networks, or TURPE. This tariff, which finances the maintenance and improvement of electricity networks, should increase by 10% in 2025.
The Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) has already predicted such an increase. The objective would in fact be to allow network managers maintain and develop electrical infrastructure.
For consumers, this increase could represent a additional 2-3% increase on their electricity bill. Although this may seem moderate, combined with the increase in TICFE, it risks increasing electricity costs even further.
What about gas?
On the gas side, the situation promises to be as complex as electricity. In 2024, gas prices have already suffered a sharp increase, which has led consumers to pay much more for their heating.
According to the figures of MoneyVoxthe annual bill for a household consuming 14,000 kWh of gas per year increased from 1,408 euros in 2023 to 1,728 euros in 2024. This trend could continue in 2025, as gas prices on wholesale markets remain uncertain .
However, there is some positive elements. The gas development tariff, adjusted as part of the infrastructure reform, is expected to undergo only marginal adjustments until 2027. This means that the increase in costs linked to this tariff will be relatively modest.
The gas price for 2025 will also depend on the tax policy applied. CurrentlyVAT on gas and electricity is 20% on the supply and 5.5% on the subscription. Some parliamentary debates have mentioned a modification of these rates, but nothing has yet been decided.
Source : MoneyVox
