for INSEE, there are three main causes

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No recovery in sight. In Paris, since 2012, the population continues to decrease. According to the latest figures from INSEE, between 2016 and 2022, the capital lost an average of 12,800 inhabitants per year. As of January 1, 2022, the Parisian population was 2,113,705 inhabitants compared to 2,190,327 six years earlier. A trend which does not seem likely to be reversed in the short term.

The population is increasing in the other departments of Île-de-France

In recent years, the decline has become more pronounced. “The decline, of 0.59% on annual average, is a little more marked than that observed during the period 2011-2016 (-0.54%), notes INSEE. This is explained by a natural balance in slight decline (as in all the Ile-de-France departments), the apparent migratory deficit being stable (-1.22% per year).”

Other figures hurt the city led by Anne Hidalgo: the population is increasing in the other Ile-de-France departments at an average annual rate of between +0.45% and +0.76% between 2016 and 2022.

The most populous department in the Ile-de-France region after Paris, Seine-Saint-Denis is experiencing the strongest demographic dynamism within the region: it gains 12,500 inhabitants each year (i.e. +0.76% per year) due to a balance natural resources still clearly in surplus (+1.14%), linked to the youth of its population. The natural balance in Seine-Saint-Denis is the highest in mainland France.

The reasons for the departure of Parisians

What is the reason for this persistent disenchantment with the City of Lights? According to INSEE, and unsurprisingly, the still high cost of housing is one of the main reasons explaining departures. Even if property prices are falling, the capital remains the most expensive city in France. A recent study by Notaries of France reveals that purchasing power has structurally declined over the last two decades. At the start of the 21st century, the real estate market benefited in particular from a buoyant economic situation, marked by low borrowing rates. A situation counterbalanced in 2008 by the economic crisis.

Another explanation put forward by INSEE, the arrival of a child which leads to the search for larger accommodation in nearby Hauts-de-Seine or Val-de-Marne where certain municipalities stand out because they are very welcoming to young parents.

In the same sense, the search for another living environment, accentuated since Covid, is also an important factor. According to a ranking published in the Journal du Dimanche (JDD) at the end of January 2024, the most beautiful city in the world no longer really makes you want to settle there. The association “cities and villages where life is good” ranks the capital 103rd out of 34,808 municipalities in mainland France, thus knocking it out of the Top 100.

In 91st place in 2023, the City of Light is now placed behind Cergy (99th), Poissy (100th), Troyes (101st) and Sartrouville (102nd), in particular. A ranking based on OpinionWay surveys which make it possible to define relevant categories and criteria according to those surveyed. In 2024, the three main priorities were for example: quality of life, safety and health.

Demographic trends that will continue

According to a recent INSEE study, recent demographic trends are expected to continue in the coming years and the Parisian population will continue to decline to reach 2,064,000 inhabitants by 20240. “The Parisian demographic decline would be linked to a deficit in migratory balance which would remain important, predicts INSEE. Although positive, the natural surplus would gradually decline over the period, notably under the effect of the increase in deaths linked to the arrival of the baby boom generations at the ages of greatest mortality.

The share of the youngest (under 15) would continue to decline and the aging of the population would continue. In 2040, Paris would be one of the Ile-de-France departments where the proportion of people aged 75 or over would be the highest (12%).

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