The rebound. The statement is a bit cavalier given the very worrying real estate situation in France for two years. However, it is with this formula that the National Union of Real Estate Unions (Unis) launched its 15th congress organized at the Jacobins convent last October. A Coué method which does not stand up to the test of figures. [Retrouvez le dossier spécial immobilier dans le dernier numéro du Mensuel de Rennes].
All indicators are now in the red. Between November 2023 and May 2024, the number of transactions fell by almost 23% in France. With 793,000 sales between June 2023 and May 2024, the volume has never been so low since 2015. In new construction, the situation is not much better. 280,000 housing units were started, a drop of 21.5%.
What about Rennes? Despite its attractiveness, the Breton capital is not immune to this real estate crisis. All the professionals interviewed believe that it is “much worse” than during the economic crash of 2008. In the city of Rennes alone (outside the mainland), sales of new homes fell by 54%, between the first nine months. of 2023 and the first nine of 2024. In mainland France, the drop is 26%. This is more than in administrative Brittany as a whole (-21%). On the production side, 4,600 housing units were started in 2023 in the Rennes catchment area, a drop of 42% over one year.
The stars aligned to lead to this crash
The crisis comes after a continuous rise in prices since the 2010s and the advent of major projects – LGV, line B, EuroRennes, convention center, etc. + 38% on average, over 10 years. Rennes has joined the “big ones” in its ability to align certain programs with stratospheric tickets per square meter – almost €10,000 in the luxury residence Cap Mail. More than in certain Parisian districts.
Today, the backlash is severe for the Breton capital, which is among the most attractive metropolises in France. How did we get there? The main cause is macroeconomic. It is not the only explanation. The stars have aligned to lead to this crash, the consequences of which are likely to be felt for years. For the City, but especially for the people of Rennes.
“Residential route” seized
The latter are the first to pay the price. Officially, housing construction efforts aim to respond to Rennes' “demographic vacuum” – 100,000 additional inhabitants expected in the metropolis by 2050 according to INSEE. On a daily basis, they are mainly used to house Rennes residents by accompanying them on their “residential journey”. That is to say, change their habitat according to the evolution of their life.
With this in mind, the new PLH 2023-2028 provides for an annual production of 5,000 housing units. Will the objectives be met? Honoré Puil does not hide his concern: “When I look at the figures for 2023, we are close to 5,000 housing units,” says the vice-president in charge of housing at the Metropolis. The situation in 2024 is not satisfactory. It is this year and those to come that we will really feel the effects of the crisis. »
A slowdown in construction means fewer turnovers in social housing. It also reduces the possibilities for social or assisted access to allow growing families to stay and live in Rennes. Since 2021, half of collective housing sales in Rennes are high-end (more than €4,400/m²) compared to two-thirds in the mid-range (less than €4,400/m²) in the rest of the metropolis.
A reality that contrasts with the City's objectives of reducing a particularly marked rich/poor divide, where the middle classes are fewer and fewer in number.
Multiplication of hollow teeth
The breakdown in construction also means fewer rental homes. Over the first nine months of the year, the supply of rental properties increased slightly in Rennes (+ 1.7%) compared to the first nine of 2023. Tension nevertheless remains very strong. 8,340 homes were rented between January and September in Rennes. A figure to compare with the 70,000 students who attend higher education establishments in the Breton capital. Not to mention young working people, single or in a relationship, who sometimes give up jobs in Rennes for lack of housing.
The crisis is also part of the urban landscape. Hollow teeth – unbuilt spaces surrounded by buildings – are multiplying where old buildings once stood, destroyed to accommodate small collectives of four or five floors which may never see the light of day. Construction sites are stopped, at a standstill, with no prospect of recovery. Dozens of building permits are canceled. Certainly, all these abandonments are not due to the crisis, notes an observer. And to cite collective actions, for example against the Aiguillon tower. On the economic front, business defections are increasing. Some of them leave families on the side of the road, in the middle of the construction site.
Political instability and sluggish finances
Do professionals see a clearing? Thomas L'Ollivier wants to believe it. “I see a few glimmers of light coming on,” hopes the president of the Chamber of Notaries of Ille-et-Vilaine. Even if we will not return to the interest rates of before (around 1.5% five years ago over 20 years), we are observing slight declines. In addition, there has been a slight decrease in prices – 4.9% for old apartments in Rennes – over the past year. All this can give buyers some breathing room. »
On the promoter side, the story is less enthusiastic. “A year ago I was less pessimistic,” remembers Nolwenn Lam Kermarrec, co-president of the Kermarrec real estate group, which chairs the Regional Observatory of New Housing (Oréal). The government announced, in June 2023, strong decisions for housing. »
Among the measures intended to revive it, the extension of the Zero Interest Loan (PTZ) until 2027, the maintenance of the monthly payment of the usury rate – the maximum interest rate that credit institutions can offer to their customers when they grant a loan, or even the expansion of the real joint lease.
A year later, the situation has changed. The dissolution in June 2024 added uncertainty to an already fragile ecosystem. The government of Michel Barnier was censored. The next one will also inherit a public deficit never seen before -6.1%- since 2008, if we except the covid years. In Rennes, at the United Congress, the new Minister of Housing, Valérie Létard, pleaded for a simplification of standards. A challenge in an ultra-regulated sector subject to contradictory injunctions: produce cheaper housing while meeting the imperatives of fighting climate change… with bloodless finances. A context which should perhaps have pushed the United States to put a
