Saccording to the results of the census made public on December 17 by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the total fertility index (TFR) reached 1.97 in 2024, falling below the generation replacement threshold of 2, 1 child per woman.
The decline in fertility, according to the report, is observed in both urban and rural areas. In 2024, the average number of children per woman was 1.77 in urban areas, compared to 2.01 in 2014, and 2.37 in rural areas, compared to 2.55 previously.
Fertility varies significantly between regions, reflecting spatially differentiated demographic dynamics, notes the HCP. Thus, the TFR levels exceed the generation replacement threshold in the regions of Drâa-Tafilalet (2.35), Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab (2.25), Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra (2.17) and Marrakech-Safi (2.13).
On the other hand, the rest of the regions display fertility indices below the replacement threshold, reflecting an advanced demographic transition, particularly in the regions of Oriental (1.73), Souss-Massa (1.89), and Casablanca. -Settat (1.90), Rabat-Salé-Kénitra (1.91) and Béni Mellal-Khénifra (1.95).
The evolution of fertility is linked to changes in marital behavior, including increased use of contraceptive methods, the increase in permanent celibacy at age 55 (rising from 5.9% in 2014 to 9.4% in 2024) , the increase in the divorce rate, and the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic “possibly prompting many couples to postpone their marriage and childbearing plans”, underlines the HCP.
Finally, the report notes a marked inversion of the age pyramid, with a drop in the share of young people under 15 (from 28.2% in 2014 to 26.5% in 2024) and an increase in that of people aged 60 and over (from 9.4% in 2014 to 13.8% in 2024).
