Between 2012 and 2022, Morocco experienced inflation notably impacted by fluctuations in maritime transport costs, according to an in-depth analysis by Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM). This study, carried out by economists Saïda Hajjaji and Kamal Lahlou, highlights the direct relationship between the increase in freight rates and the progression of the consumer price index (CPI). In particular, tradable goods, such as food and energy products, have been hit hard by this dynamic.
Imbalances in the shipping sector, exacerbated by international crises, have been amplified since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Harpex index, which tracks the evolution of container ship transport costs, has shown recurring increases over long periods. At the same time, the Baltic index, measuring prices for dry raw materials, highlighted short-term fluctuations. These indicators illustrate how each increase in freight rates led to an increase in the Moroccan CPI of up to 0.3% over a period of 8 to 12 months.
The increase in logistics costs is not an isolated phenomenon. Geopolitical tensions and global upheavals played a determining role. In 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict disrupted global supply chains, helping to keep ocean freight prices at historically high levels. Added to this is the consolidation of alliances between large shipowners, which has strengthened their pricing power, and the volatility of energy costs, an essential element for maritime transport.
In 2024, new disruptions emerged, notably with attacks in the Red Sea which pushed several shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal. This forced detour has generated additional costs, particularly for trade between Europe and Asia, on which the economies of the MENA region, including Morocco, heavily depend.
A direct impact on food and energy products
In a country where the economy relies largely on imports, particularly for foodstuffs and fossil fuels, rising transport costs are immediately reflected in the prices of consumer products. Moroccan families directly feel this financial pressure in their daily lives. The average household basket, made up of more than 30% imported products, reflects increased inflation, making daily life more expensive.
BAM economists have also identified a structural vulnerability of the Moroccan economy to these fluctuations. In the absence of sufficient diversification of supply sources and increased national production capacity, Morocco remains dependent on global logistics costs, weakening its economic resilience.
Faced with these challenges, the Moroccan government is called upon to adopt ambitious measures to cushion the impact of maritime transport costs on inflation. Investment in port and logistics infrastructure, particularly to strengthen local storage and production capacities, is an essential lever to limit dependence on imports. Furthermore, the diversification of trading partners and the exploration of new, less costly maritime routes can help reduce the effects of tariff increases.
Implementing appropriate tax policies, such as reducing taxes on basic necessities, could also help protect household purchasing power. At the same time, incentives for the green economy, such as the development of renewable energies to reduce energy bills, would offer an opportunity for sustainable development.
As international tensions and economic uncertainties persist, Morocco must reaffirm its commitment to finding long-term structural solutions. Bank Al-Maghrib’s findings highlight the need for constructive dialogue between the public and private sectors to address disruption in shipping and prevent future inflationary shocks. Ultimately, a resilient and inclusive economic strategy is essential to protect the Moroccan economy from the vagaries of global trade.
