Rise and fall of France… The recent firing of a Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile (up to 5,500 km) cruelly revealed a very substantial shortcoming of France in terms of anti-ballistic missile defense (DAMB). And France can only blame itself. Because this Russian shot clearly demonstrated the lack of strategic vision of the French state since 2011 in this area where France was very advanced. in Europe in terms of early warning with the Spirale demonstration program (Infra-Red Preparatory System for ALerte). But it was a period when the defense budget served above all as an adjustment variable for the governments of the day, always quick to slash the armies' funds. Today, armies are paying a very heavy price at a time when ballistic threats are increasing and conflicts are becoming more and more violent with certain completely uninhibited states.
“This demonstrator has proven that it is possible to observe and track missiles from space and with even more precision than expected. Budgetary constraints have not allowed the integration of an early warning program into successive military programs since then,” Olivier Becht and Stéphane Trompille in a report on military space published in January 2019.
The Spirale program, composed of two satellites, was developed by Airbus and placed in geostationary orbit between 2009 and 2011. It was supplemented by a ground platform for complete simulation of the alert chain which was developed. France has demonstrated that it has real technological know-how in Europe in terms of early warning systems thanks to the Spirale demonstrator, whose two satellites were equipped with infrared sensors: ArianeGroup for modeling the signatures of ballistic missiles and Airbus for observation of shots using the Spirale system. Such a capability should make it possible to detect the departure of ballistic missiles in order to shoot them down in flight before they reach their targets. It is based on the principle of detecting the heat (infrared signature) released by the engines during the propulsion phase of the missile.
Loss of leadership
But today France is losing all this lead, Germany having taken leadership in Europe in the early detection of ballistic missile launches. The Odin's Eye technological program, financed by the European Defense Fund (90 million euros) was entrusted in June 2023 by the European Commission to OHB System over a period of 36 months. The establishment of a sovereign early warning capacity would allow Europeans to move away from their current dependence on information provided in this area by the Americans within the framework of the Atlantic Alliance. Today, the United States reportedly relies on eight early warning satellites while Russia and China operate four and five, respectively. For an operational system covering the entire planet, three satellites would in principle be required.
The Odin's Eye project will ultimately enable the development of a European early warning capability for missiles transiting through space (SBMEW, European Space-Based Missile Early Warning system). It will thus respond to current and future security threats. Concretely, this European Defense Fund project is carrying out a preliminary study of a possible capability on a European scale. France follows and supports European work in the field of early warning, we explain to La Tribune. “The data collected by Spirale is an asset for France in the context of these developments”we specify. A transition is underway towards the second phase of the project (Odin's Eye 2) which will go into more detail in the design of the system and the satellites.
France abandons this capacity
However, the principle of launching a post-Spiral operational program was prescribed by the White Paper: “Space capabilities are also necessary for a sovereign assessment of the ballistic threat, for early warning, and therefore for deterrence”. Then thehe military programming law (LPM) 2009-2014 had planned the development of infrared geostationary space surveillance means and announced a first operational satellite by 2020, then a second in cooperation with European countries. Because to monitor an area going from Guyana to North Korea, two satellites would be needed. This program had even been announced to NATO.
“France has decided to acquire a capacity to detect and alert ballistic missile launches by 2020 in order to monitor test launches from proliferating countries, to protect population centers, forces and identified installations as targets, and to precisely locate the origin of the missile fire”the Ministry of Defense explained in a press release in June 2010.
Ultimately, this program was never launched even though hypersonic and ballistic threats have multiplied over the years. Post-Spiral research was therefore suspended following the decision of the Ministry of Defense (Jean-Yves Le Drian) not to continue work on early warning and DAMB due to lack of funds. However, France had developed expertise in early warning since 2004, the year the ministry launched work on the demonstrator. Spiral. The two microsatellites that make up the system were placed into orbit in February 2009.
In 2011, the cost of an early warning satellite program was estimated between 600 million euros and one billion euros. In the various budgetary projection exercises of the ministry over the period 2011-2020, the General Directorate of Armaments (DGA) retained the figure of 733 million euros. However, “the Spirale demonstrator has enabled the creation of a database which includes a very large number of images essential to understanding the natural and physical phenomena likely to generate false alerts during the detection of missiles during their propelled phase”explained deputies Oliver Becht and Stéphane Trompille.
