A historic page is turning on Thursday in the United Kingdom, where the centre-left Labour Party is expected to inflict a crushing defeat on the Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years, in a general election marked by the recent surge of the hard right.
After difficult years during which the British have gone through Brexit, economic and social crisis, Covid, scandals and political instability – three Conservative Prime Ministers in 2022 and five since 2010 – voters only aspire to one thing: change.
This is not the time for optimism or wild hope, but they are prepared to give a chance to Keir Starmer, a dour and little-known 61-year-old Labour man, a former human rights lawyer and then attorney general, before being elected as an MP only nine years ago.
He is expected to become prime minister, a position that goes to the leader of the political party that wins the majority of seats in the legislative elections.
Keir Starmer is neither charismatic nor very popular. He remained extremely cautious, even vague, during the campaign, so as not to compromise his party’s 20-point lead over the Conservatives.
His goal? To give an image of seriousness and firmness, particularly fiscal and economic, after having refocused his party without any qualms since the monumental failure of Jeremy Corbyn, positioned very much to the left in 2019.
His promises? Limited.
The Labour Party has no “magic wand”, he has already warned.
But this man of modest origins, son of a toolmaker and a nurse, speaks of integrity, of the sense of service in politics.
“The first thing I will do (once I am at the head of the government) will be to change the mentality of politics, which must be a policy at the service” of the people, he declared on Tuesday, recalling the numerous scandals that have marked all these years of conservative power.
“Country first, party second,” he repeated, as he often did.
– Seriousness and firmness –
Among the main concerns of voters are the economy, the deterioration of public health services and immigration.
The nationalist party Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage, who is trying for the eighth time to be elected to the House of Commons, has made this last subject its main hobby horse, linking to it all the ills from which the United Kingdom suffers such as the lack of housing, the difficulty of obtaining health care in the public sector and the absence of work for some young people.
A true tribune, he entered the race last month, immediately boosting voting intentions for his party, which is now hot on the heels of the conservatives and has even overtaken them in a handful of polls.
The 60-year-old former MEP, a Donald Trump admirer and lifelong Brexiter, has a good chance of being elected in Clacton-on-Sea, a coastal town east of London.
Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister for 20 months – he succeeded Liz Truss, forced to resign after 44 days in Downing Street – has made every effort to convince his compatriots not to offer a blank cheque to Labour.
He announced tax cuts, promised better days… while brandishing the threat of massive tax increases under a Labour government.
In vain. The Conservatives risk experiencing the worst debacle in their history.
In the final stretch, this campaign, which was a foregone conclusion, no longer seemed to interest anyone.
Rishi Sunak, a 44-year-old multimillionaire of Indian origin, often considered out of touch with the concerns of the British, continued against all odds, starting his electoral marathon at 4:00 a.m. on Tuesday, seeking to win back voters hesitating between Reform UK and the Conservative party in constituencies where the vote will be tight.
“I will fight for every vote, until the end of the campaign,” he insisted.
Reform UK is fielding over 600 candidates this year – there are 650 constituencies in total – and although the single-round voting system favours the two major parties, Nigel Farage has made no secret of his intentions: he wants to eviscerate the Tories, who have been worn down by internal divisions, and make his party the major opposition party, with the aim of winning the 2029 general election.
