What does the Parisian political landscape look like after the first round of early legislative elections? While the left comes out on top in the majority of constituencies facing a presidential majority that is losing ground, the far right – whose scores remain low – manages to qualify a candidate for the second round.
In the capital, the left is doing well in the first round of the legislative elections. La France Insoumise, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, Parti Socialiste… 9 candidates from the New Popular Front (or related) were elected in the first round on Sunday. Among the 18 Parisian constituencies, four other candidates from the united left also came out on top.
For its part, the presidential coalition is declining in the west and center of the capital, even though it comes out on top in five constituencies. As for the Republican right, it only qualifies two of its candidates for the second round, in the west of Paris. As in 2022.
As for the party chaired by Jordan Bardella, the RN, far from its historic results at the national level, still achieves low scores in Paris. The extreme right, however, qualifies a candidate for the second round: Louis Piquet, also supported by Éric Ciotti, and who gathered more than 17.6% of the votes in the first round in the 14th constituency, located in the 16th arrondissement. He will face Patrick Dray (Les Républicains), with 17.7% in the first round, and Benjamin Haddad (Ensemble), with 47.7% in the first round.
Overall, the RN obtained 10.7% of the votes cast in Paris, compared to 3.9% in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections. In two years, the party thus gained 77,000 votes, and managed to place third in fifteen constituencies. Its highest scores were in the West of Paris.
“As in large cities in general, we still see a relative weakness of the RN in Paris. The extreme right is less successful there than in peri-urban and rural areas.“, analyses Benjamin Biard, researcher at the Centre for Sociopolitical Research and Information (CRISP) in Brussels, and visiting professor at the Catholic University of Louvain, in Belgium. This political scientist specializing in the extreme right is not surprised, however, to see that “In Paris, the RN vote remains low but is still increasing“.
“This reflects the more general political trend during these legislative elections, he explains. The party draws on its traditional support, but also succeeds in broadening and diversifying its electorate. The RN electorate is traditionally rather masculine, and has a lower socioeconomic, cultural and educational capital, that is to say a lower level of qualifications. But the party is now managing to find more women in its electorate, a trend initiated since the arrival of Marine Le Pen at its head. The party is also managing to find more wealthy people and retirees than in the past.“
“The RN vote is both a vote of support and a protest vote, one does not prevent the other, also recalls the political scientist. It is a way of opposing other parties such as LFI and the outgoing Macronist majority. But it is also a way of protesting against the current functioning of democracy, with a distrust of institutions. However, it is also a very strong vote of support for the essential criteria of the extreme right: security, immigration, etc. The party also positions itself on socio-economic issues, with purchasing power.“
Beyond the RN, Benjamin Biard finally underlines that the broad success of the left in Paris “is explained more by the sociological structure than by the place of life itself and the simple fact of living in the city“. “Left-wing voters are over-represented in Paris, with more highly qualified people, with higher socio-economic and educational capital than the average.“, he sums up.
As a reminder, in 2022, the presidential majority obtained half of the mandates and left-wing candidates were elected in the other half.
