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Between risks of drought and rising temperatures, discover the weather forecast for the 2024 summer season which begins in France.
Summer is here, but will it be hot? While the sun made its return last week with heavy temperatures in the south of France in particular, Météo France has just published a bulletin of average trends for the next three months, from July to September 2024.
“A hotter than normal summer”
And if in its press release, Météo France assures that “it is still too early to predict the weather conditions until September week by week”, the scenario of a quarter “warmer than normal is slightly more likely for France” while “this probability is more marked in the south of the country.”
In fact, according to the probabilities put forward, there is a 50% chance that temperatures will be higher this summer than in previous years, and a 70% chance in the south of France.
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Météo France also specifies that a “dry scenario is preferred in the south of the country”. In detail, there is a 50% probability that the weather will be drier than seasonal norms, 25% that it will be in line with seasonal norms and 25% that the climate will be wetter. However, “this scenario does not exclude occasional episodes with rainfall that could be locally significant.” specifies Météo France.
Regarding the climate in the north of France, there is a 33% probability that it will be wetter than seasonal norms, a 33% probability that it will be in line with seasonal norms and a 33% probability that it will be drier.
Should we expect a scorching summer?
Although in its Météo France bulletin, the official meteorological service predicts higher than normal temperatures, it explains that “climate trends are not weather forecasts.” Thus, “predicting a warmer than normal scenario over three months does not necessarily imply the occurrence of heat waves or heat waves.”
However, the severe heatwaves that have occurred in previous summers suggest that the summer season will be one with particularly high temperatures.
Why does Météo France publish forecast bulletins three months in advance?
If Météo France issues weather reports so far in advance, it is in particular because “climate trends can be used as decision-making tools in weather-sensitive sectors such as energy, water resources, or even agriculture. They can be associated with forecasts over more targeted periods, in the medium and then short term” concludes Météo France.
