Nearly seven out of ten voters turned out for the legislative elections – a record since 1986 – this will not be enough to heal the wounds of the former majority. On June 9, the day after a heavy defeat in the European elections, the head of state took everyone by surprise by announcing the dissolution of the National Assembly. He stated that evening on television that he did not want to “suffer” history and called for a major clarification after two years of relative majority. Twenty days later, he suffered a defeat. His majority is defeated. And next Sunday, a small half of Macronist deputies will at best return to the benches of the Palais Bourbon. The failure is resounding. Macronie is down.
The RN has doubled its score in two years
In 2017 after his first victory against Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron promised during his election to ensure that there was no longer any reason to vote for the National Rally. Seven years later, the RN has never been so high. One figure illustrates its dizzying progression: in 2022, RN candidates had collected around 18% in the legislative elections and obtained 89 seats. Two years later, the RN doubled its votes (between 33 and 34% according to estimates). It has already pocketed nearly 40 seats in the first round (a first as welcomed by Marine Le Pen, herself re-elected last night) and could aim for an absolute majority in a week. Suffice to say that Emmanuel Macron is checkmate! The great clarification did take place but to his disadvantage. Here he is about to have to live with Jordan Bardella. A humiliation for the President of the Republic who will not have seen anything coming. Neither the rise in power of the RN which has become a vote of adhesion, nor the capacity of the left to overcome their divisions and to organize to counter it. His camp did recover a little of the votes that had been cast on the list of the socialist Raphaël Glucksmann, but not enough to make up for it.
The Elysée supports Ruffin who wanted to “decapitate” Macron
The head of state has one week left to avoid this absolute RN majority which is not so certain. His allies Edouard Philippe (Horizons) and François Bayrou (MoDem) and even his Prime Minister Gabriel Attal seemed resigned when it came to drawing up an initial assessment. The first immediately delivered the funeral eulogy of the majority and called for a vote against the RN and LFI. The second followed suit by singing the tune of “neither-nor”. The third proposed a few exceptions among the LFI candidates, implying that only impeccable Republican candidates would be supported. At the Elysée, it was the music of “case by case” that prevailed.
A sort of political nonsense that is very difficult to read, cooked up urgently and in the night… Like supporting, for example, the rebellious François Rufin who called in 2018, in the midst of the yellow vest crisis, a stone’s throw from the Elysée, to “decapitate ” the president of the Republic. We will definitely have seen and heard everything in this second five-year term which has not even reached its midpoint. What does it matter! Determined to preside “until the last quarter of an hour of his mandate”, the head of state is determined to do everything to avoid having to endure combative cohabitation with Marine Le Pen’s RN. The countdown begins.
