How would growth, employment, public debt and inequalities evolve if the National Rally (RN) or the New Popular Front (NFP) implemented their programs? In its latest study, the Ifrap institute partially answers this question by predicting the impact on public accounts of the RN or NFP programs. This results in new financing needs for the State, of the order of 8.5 billion per year for the RN and 178 billion per year for the NFP. The French State deficit in 2023 already stands at 154 billion, or 5.5% of GDP, it would climb with this additional spending to around 5.8% with the RN and 11.9% with the NFP, well beyond what the European treaties authorize before the country is subject to the “excessive deficit procedure”.
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But beyond the state’s budgetary problems, voters also need to know what these programs will mean for them, since the risks taken for public finances can be offset by possible private benefits. They also need evaluations where, in response to these programs, the adaptations of their consumption behavior, hours worked, salary contracts, etc. are taken into account. It is therefore appropriate to integrate the new expenditures of these programs as well as the tax changes they propose to predict what France would look like in 2027 if they were implemented.
The NFP program would reduce the annual growth rate by 0.74 percentage points
Stall. In order to give orders of magnitude on the changes that these programs would bring about for the French, the Cepremap model, which is used each year to evaluate the finance law submitted by the government to Parliament for a vote, indicates that the RN program would lead to a reduction in the annual growth rate of 0.59 percentage points on average until the end of 2027 relative to the growth trajectory proposed by the current government and voted in November 2023. That of the NFP would induce a reduction in the growth rate annual rate of 0.74 percentage points. This represents a reduction in created wealth of 59.78 billion euros over the next 3.5 years for the RN, and of 74.8 billion euros for the NFP. These two programs therefore suggest a worsening of France’s decline in terms of production and therefore wealth to distribute.
On the employment front, while it should grow at an average rate of 0.71% per year until the end of 2027 with the current government’s policy, it would only increase by 0.26% per year with the RN and 0.07% per year with the NFP. This means that 126,000 jobs will not be created with the RN by 2027 and 179,000 with the NFP. With these programs, job losses are largely linked to the repeal of the last pension reform (with the RN) or the return to retirement at 60 (with the NFP): they therefore mainly affect low- and medium-wage jobs for which the starting age of careers is younger.
Public debt representing 113% of GDP in 2027 if the RN policy was applied, while the current government’s scenario predicted a return to 108% in 2027
In this context of impoverishment of the country, public finances would be extremely degraded, with public debt representing 113% of GDP in 2027 if the RN policy were applied, while the current government’s scenario predicted a return to 108%. in 2027. The debt could even soar to reach 140% in 2027 if the NFP policy was applied. But our estimate certainly underestimates these developments because it assumes that the conditions under which the French State borrows are the same regardless of the policy implemented. If borrowing conditions tighten due to a debt that is more difficult to repay, then the 113% debt with the RN and the 140% debt with the NFP are “low” estimates.
Poorer. Finally, these two programs make it possible to reduce inequalities compared to what the current government’s policy had predicted. With the latter’s policy, a wealthy worker who consumes 4.3 times more than a poor worker in 2023 will see his advantage grow in 2027 since he will then be able to consume 4.8 times more than a poor worker in 2027. With the RN program, a wealthy worker will see his advantage grow more weakly because he will consume 4.5 times more than a poor worker. With the NFP this advantage will decrease because he will only consume 1.26 times more.
Thus, these two programs make it possible to further contain (with the RN) or even reduce (with the NFP) inequalities in living standards, but in an economy where households are on average poorer and where the share of their income coming from redistribution, and not of work, is increasing, even very sharply increasing with the NFP program. Even if France must maintain a strongly redistributive “welfare state”, it is not certain that the French malaise will be cured if everyone sees their standard of living depend less and less on their effort: with such policies, the feeling of downgrading will only be deeper.
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