How Macronie is preparing for the scenario of cohabitation with the RN

Faced with the possibility of an absolute majority for the National Rally at the end of the legislative elections, many members of the presidential camp are expressing their pessimism and are already trying to plan for an uncertain future.

At the Élysée, since the evening of June 9 and the announcement of the dissolution, Emmanuel Macron’s entourage has not changed its discourse despite the rout of the European elections. “It’s a new campaign. The president believes in the Republican revival!”, hammers home a strategist day after day, despite polls in the doldrums for the presidential camp, two days before the first round of the legislative elections.

So: stroke of genius? Or total denial? Outside of the microphone and camera, (very) many members of the majority, for their part, do not have at all the same speech, as they explained to BFMTV. They have already recorded the defeat of their camp: “Our moment has passed. The moment that will come will be that of the RN. Or of great disorder. Or both”, confides an important member of the macronie.

“It is not a clarification that Emmanuel Macron has made, but an explosion,” continues an executive.

“The most unpredictable cohabitation of the Fifth Republic”

What would be Emmanuel Macron’s attitude in the face of an absolute majority of the RN, and a Jordan Bardella renting the Hôtel de Matignon? “The president would say to himself: I’m going to help them crash,” believes an ally of the head of state. “He would retain quite a few powers: the possibility of blocking appointments, the non-signing of decrees implementing laws,” he concludes.

Another executive tempers: “This would necessarily be an indelible mark in the History of France. In this extremely serious, and probable, hypothesis of cohabitation, political calculations should, in my opinion, take second place. Priority to the protection of the Constitution in the face of an indomitable RN Prime Minister”.

All of Emmanuel Macron’s close associates agree that this would be the “most unpredictable cohabitation of the Fifth Republic”.

If for a current minister “Jordan Bardella would have no other choice than to respect the strict separation of powers between the Prime Minister and the President of the Republic”, this tenor of the current majority is not at all the same opinion: “the latest statements by Marine Le Pen and the so-called ‘honorary title’ of chief of the armed forces for the President of the Republic send a very clear subliminal message. Madame Le Pen tells us ‘we don’t want part of the power, we wants all the power. She tests Emmanuel Macron from a distance and warns him. She doesn’t want cohabitation. She wants domination.”

Before summarizing his thoughts in an image: “the extreme right will not be content to devour half of the carcass; it will want to devour it in its entirety.”

The bet of tensions between Bardella and Le Pen

But could this rise of Jordan Bardella to responsibilities paradoxically disrupt the presidential ambitions of Marine Le Pen? And, therefore, dynamite the coming months?

“You will see that, in this hypothesis, there will be divergent interests between the two” predicts a heavyweight of the macronie, before continuing; “Bardella has an interest in succeeding in normalization and having results over time. Le Pen, on the contrary, has every interest in provoking an early presidential election, with the certainty, in my opinion, that we would not be in the second round ( …) the president must hold on, and not resign.”

Before concluding ironically: “It’s not going to be easy for her to be on the benches of the hemicycle… While her heir apparent will be moving around with flashing lights, bodyguards and cameras everywhere.”

Already on everyone’s minds: legislative elections in 2025

In any case, it is impossible for Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly again for a year. But once this deadline has passed, what can the 1958 Constitution allow?

“If the RN has a comfortable majority, it’s almost certain: in a year, we’ll do it again with a dissolution!” assures an ally of the president.

With a window of opportunity between “June 2025 and December 2025” according to him, because afterwards, “there will be the senatorial and municipal elections in 2026, then the presidential election in 2027”.

But before all that, and always on the hypothesis of cohabitation with the National Rally, the government of Gabriel Attal will not escape the seesaw of the reshuffle. And one thing is certain: some ministers do not see themselves at all appearing with a successor labeled “RN” at the head of their ministry during the traditional transfer of power.

“We can imagine lots of things,” confides the advisor of one of them, before detailing: “that they are not necessarily physically side by side because no, that is not necessarily the image we want to leave.”