Over one month, consumer prices should increase by 0.2% in October 2024 (after -1.2% in September).
In a report published this Thursday, INSEE confirms that, over one year, consumer prices would increase by 1.2% in October 2024, after +1.1% in September. Over one month, according to these provisional estimates, prices increased by 0.2% in October after a drop of 1.2% in September.
The harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which allows comparisons between European countries, increased by 1.5% in October after 1.4% in September. Over one month, it would increase by 0.3% after -1.3% the previous month.
This “quasi-stability” of inflation would be due to a “slowdown in the prices of services and a less marked drop in those of energy over one year than in September”. The prices of manufactured products, food and tobacco should evolve over a year at rates close to those of the previous month.
Penalizing inflation below 2%
Over one month, the slight increase in prices would be linked to the increase in those of energy (mainly those of oil and gas products), the prices of manufactured products (notably those of clothing and shoes), prices of services (especially transport), and prices of food (especially fresh produce). Tobacco prices should be stable compared to September.
In October 2023, inflation over one year was still 4%, recalls INSEE. The ECB has eased its monetary policy recently, with three interest rate cuts since June. Inflation in France is now significantly below the 2% target favored by the institution.
In September, it was 1.7% in the euro zone, causing the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, to say this month that “the risk of lastingly missing our target from below now exists as much as that of the exceed”: inflation below 2% is considered detrimental to economic growth.