Violent storms: the month of June is likely to be very active

First act: discretion

An atmospheric ridge risks settling comfortably over Quebec, encouraging a regime favorable to heat. Precipitation should therefore be relegated to the background.

However, ambient humidity and heat could be arguments in favor of the formation of storm cells. “A trigger is missing which will become clearer over the course of next week. On the other hand, weak disturbances which will pass over north-central Quebec could light the fuse in passing,” explains weather expert Réjean Ouimet.

Second act: the shift

“Towards the end of next week a trend reversal will take place. The moment of rupture will also be accompanied by more significant storms,” continues Réjean Ouimet. Between the middle of the month and the summer solstice on June 20, the heat could retreat in favor of more unstable weather. Periods of overlapping thunderstorms and heavier rain are therefore possible. Most of the precipitation expected for the month of June is likely to fall during this period.

Third act: the detonation

The heat should return at a gallop for the last part of the month. This warm regime would work hand in hand with drier weather.

Thunderstorms could therefore become rarer, but would be more violent. “You will have to be particularly attentive during changes in temperature and/or humidity, since these are the moments of rupture which often rhyme with more significant storms,” estimates the weather expert.

Such a context would be more favorable to fires: the combination of dry weather and lightning is indeed explosive. Last year, a record year in terms of forest fires, of the 566 fires reported by SOPFEU, 243 were apparently caused by lightning. The proportion is higher in the northernmost regions of the province (i.e. the northern zone of SOPFEU), where lightning becomes the main trigger (in 99% of cases).