HAS At a time when global pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continues to grow, the urgency to strengthen efforts to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement has never been greater . Morocco, in line with its nationally determined contributions (NDC), is aiming for an ambitious reduction of 45.5% of its GHG emissions by 2030.
Beyond its advances in renewable energies, the Kingdom now wants to take a new step: the creation of a carbon market with regional scope. This avant-garde project took shape thanks to a memorandum of understanding between the Caisse de dépôt et de gestion (CDG) and Casablanca Finance City (CFC). Based on the “polluter pays” principle, this mechanism aims to accelerate the ecological transition, encourage investments in clean technologies and support the competitiveness of national exports, particularly in the face of the carbon adjustment mechanism at EU borders. But before planning on a regional scale, Morocco must first ensure control of its own carbon market.
A potential to be handled with caution
For Dr. Saïd Guemra, energy expert and consultant, it is necessary to keep measured expectations. “We must moderate the ambitions of leadership of thehe sustainable finance, a key regional player. If we succeed in creating a functional Moroccan carbon market, it would already be a big step,” he says. Currently, the main sources of carbon certificates in Morocco come from renewable energy projects, representing around 21% of the electricity mix, which is equivalent to 6.67 million tonnes of CO2 avoided.
A figure which, despite its scope, remains modest compared to the 120 million tonnes of CO2 emitted annually by Morocco in 2023. A carbon market is based on a system of greenhouse gas emissions quotas allocated to companies and institutions . “If a company reduces its emissions from 100 to 60 tonnes of CO2 thanks to a renewable project, it can use the 60 carbon certificates generated to offset its carbon tax. Conversely, if the company generates 140 TCO2/year, it will be able to sell the 40 excess tonnes,” explains the expert. These certificates, recognized internationally, would allow Moroccan companies to comply with European requirements. However, the lack of certificate volume and the need for credible certification remain obstacles to overcome for the credibility of this market on a global scale.
The FCCM: A precedent to meditate on
In 2008, Morocco had already tried to launch a carbon market with the creation of the Morocco Carbon Capital Fund (FCCM), without success. According to Guemra, this failure can be explained by starting too early, in a context where renewable energies were still underdeveloped. Today, the context has evolved with the rise of large high voltage and very high voltage renewable projects which generate avoided CO2, and whose certificates for these projects can be sold in a few hours. The challenge lies in the narrowness of the market. “Apart from these large renewable projects, it is essential to work with medium voltage industrial companies. But the current system drastically limits the share of renewables for this category to 2.4% of national production, to say the least,” analyzes the expert. It also highlights the challenges linked to on-site self-production, which remains restricted by the surfaces available for photovoltaic installations. All these restrictions slow down market dynamics, reducing the number of certificates available and, consequently, the fluidity of trade.
For this project to take off, Morocco will have to rethink its regulations regarding renewables. “The national decarbonization rate at 6% is an indicator which shows the great delay that we have in terms of energy transition, but also the tremendous potential which remains to be exploited”, estimates Guemra. By reaching a critical size of carbon certificates, the country could not only meet its own decarbonization needs, but also position itself as a key player in the African market, and even beyond.
