Favorites for World Tour promotion and guest spots in 2026

2025, more than other years, will have a particular challenge. That of the rises and descents in the World Tour and Pro Tour since we arrive at the end of the three cumulative seasons from 2023 to 2025. The 18 best teams over the period will qualify for the World Tour and the others destined for the second division, in Pro Team. However, the top two Pro Teams will be offered valuable invitations to all WT races. A major challenge.

The year 2025 is of capital importance for certain training courses. If Lotto or Israel Premier tech, currently Pro Teams, seem assured of moving up with the lead accumulated in the UCI rankings, for the others, it is much more uncertain. From Intermarché Wanty to Arkea B&B Hotels, via Team Pic Nic (DSM), Cofidis or Astana, who will obtain 18th place, synonymous with the World Tour? In addition, beyond the climb, the ranking for the year 2025 will also have a vital role since it will award automatic invitations for the World Tour races, for the two best ranked Pro teams. Please note, these are not the 19th and 20th over three years but rather the best Pro teams of 2026 compared to points from the 2025 season only.

We have therefore prepared a team zoom for you, giving you the chances of being in the World Tour for each of them.

• Team Lotto Pro Cycling ???????? – Pro Team – 9th with 26,571 pts UCI ranking

Ninth in the UCI rankings for 2023 – 2024, Lotto is starting the 2025 season calmly. Despite the loss of Maxim Van Gils, which will weigh on the team's performance, the Belgian team is guaranteed to move up to the World Tour in 2026, barring a major catastrophe. It is 8,000 points ahead of Arkea B&B Hotels, currently 19th, which represents the sum of the French team's points over the whole of 2024. A more than comfortable mattress, especially since the mere presence of De Lie and Van Eetvelt guarantees at least 5000 pts. The Bretons would therefore have to score more than 13,000 pts, which has never happened in their history. And their recruitment does not allow us to envisage such progress. In other words, Lotto can quietly prepare for its rise to the World Tour, by banking on youth for 2025, during this year of transition.

Probability of rise: 99%

• Israel Premier Tech – Pro Team – 14th with 21,442 pts

Israel PT is the other Pro Team formation on very favorable waivers for the World Tour. With 5000 pts ahead of Arkea, it would take a catastrophe to remain in Pro Team between 2026 and 2028. Their squad has not lost in quality and the presence of riders like Williams or Gee will ensure them a sufficient points nest egg to hope to hold. However, we don't necessarily see them keeping their 14th place. We see them instead 15th, overtaken by Jayco Alula.

Probability of rise: 85%

• Intermarché Wanty ???????? – World Tour – 16th with 20,555 pts

Biniam Girmay! This is undoubtedly what Intermarché Wanty's future in the World Tour holds. As you can see in the graph above, the Eritrean has scored more than three times the number of points of the Belgian team's 2nd best performer, Thijssen, in 2024. He must definitely not repeat the same year as in 2023, at the risk of seeing his team go under. Thijssen's 2023 remains an anomaly compared to the rest of his career and only Rex seems capable of scoring a lot behind him in 2025. We will therefore have to protect his leader as best as possible. The good news is that Intermarché is a little ahead. 2000 points on Pic Nic PostNL and Cofidis and 7,500 points on Astana. If Astana has a good season at 12,000 pts, Intermarché would have to be at 4,500 minimum, which will certainly be the case. There remains Arkea but we don't see them regaining 6000 pts. It’s up to Biniam Girmay to be at the 2024 level.

Probability of retention: 70%

• You trust ???????? – World Tour – 18th with 18,366 pts

Threatened but not yet sunk, Cofidis is playing big in 2025. The winter therefore had to be successful so that the dynamic, rather negative in 2024, is more positive this season. The loss of Axel Zingle and Guillaume Martin is necessarily detrimental but the investments have been interesting. The arrival of Alex Aranburu, in a profile similar to Zingle, is real good news. If the Spaniard does not win as much as the Frenchman, he has the merit of being consistent and will be able to accumulate valuable UCI points for survival in WT, and is a better climber. The other big recruit, Dylan Teuns, will be an asset on the classics, whether on the Flandriennes where he has already performed, or on the Ardennaises. He certainly no longer has the level of 2022 but can aim for the top 10. As for Buchmann, he comes to relaunch himself and make us forget Guillaume Martin who, after a big year in 2023, was less visible in 2024. If recruitment is therefore interesting, the runners are not very reliable either. Teuns and Buchmann are clearly far from their top and it's a real gamble, which can prove to be a winning one as well as one with serious consequences. The Astana threat, which has made massive and intelligent recruitment, is only at 5,500 pts. A comfortable mattress on paper which can however quickly become insufficient if the recruits are not up to standard.

Probability of retention: 55%

• Team Pic Nic Post NL ???????? – World Tour – 17th with 18,818

In danger, just like Cofidis, the former DSM has no room for error. And yet, their transfer window was a huge flop. Losses not replaced and three small recruits, who will not weigh heavily in the 2025 UCI ranking. All hopes of maintaining therefore rest on the shoulders of three young riders: Oscar Onley, talented puncher, Max Poole young climber with a strong tendency to fall and Lund Andresen, a young sprinter who has not yet exploded. It's not much. There is a real feeling of double or nothing with the Dutch team. The Tour Down Under, where Onley is at the start, will already be crucial. The slightest injury could have serious consequences and we have little faith in Jakobsen, who is no longer in the game. Salvation could come from Romain Bardet, who will only race until June, but who can score important points, particularly in the Giro or Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Regardless, despite 5,500 pts ahead of Astana, we are not reassured. However, we cannot imagine Arkea or Uno-X surpassing them.

Probability of retention: 55%

Contrary to what many think, automatic invitations to stage races are not linked to the classification over three years but to year N-1. Teams like Tudor can therefore aim for this reward.

• Tudor Pro Cycling ???????? – Pro Team – 23rd with 8,542 pts

The UCI ranking is therefore not important except for the year 2025 which is coming for these teams and that is Tudor's luck! The Swiss team invested heavily this winter with the arrival of Hirschi and Alaphilippe. These two riders weigh respectively 3500 pts and 1700 UCI points in 2024, i.e. 5200 points between them. Knowing that Tudor didn't lose anyone important and that they scored 5700 pts last year, if we add up with the points of the two stars, we arrive at 11,000 pts, without counting other recruits like Haller. This is why, in our opinion, Tudor Pro Cycling will be the best Pro Team, especially with the new distribution and the rise of Lotto and Israel. There is almost no doubt.

Probability of being invited to all World Tours: 80%

Probability of rise: 10%

• XDS Astana Team ???????? – World Tour

If Astana still has a tiny chance of holding on, it would take quite a combination of circumstances. A season with more than 12,000 pts minimum and at the same time, the rout of at least Arkea B&B Hotels and Pic Nic or Cofidis for example. Whereas aiming for the first two places among the Pro Teams, since she risks being part of them in 2026, seems much more feasible. Without having recruited big stars, Astana has increased in density and quality. With Bettiol, Ulissi and even Higuita, she can hope to score big points. If we simply take the balance of points between departures and arrivals, we arrive at a significant surplus of 7480 pts. With the 6,600 pts scored in 2024 by the Astana team, this would make a total greater than 13,000 points, more than Lotto in 2024. There is little doubt that they will be invited, if Lotto and Israel rise well for example.

Probability of being invited to all World Tours: 80%

Probability of retention: 10%

• Uno X Mobility ???????? – Pro Team

Every year, Uno-X progresses. In 2025, the arrival of Andreas Kron will further allow the team to improve, especially as it has not lost any important rider. She would have been our favorite if the numbers had not changed, but now the reality is completely different. It would take an exceptional season for Uno-X to be among the two best Pro Teams in 2025. As the climb seems difficult with 3000 pts behind, we must instead aim for invitations and Astana and Tudor now have the advantage in our opinion but nothing is lost. If Andreas Kron has a good season, we can hope for a season of 11,000 pts or more and in this case, there would be a battle with the other two. You also have to think that the teams will run as much as possible, to accumulate as many points as possible, so the bar for saving themselves will be higher.

Probability of being invited to all World Tours: 30%

Probability of rise: 10%

• Arkea B&B Hotels ???????? – World Tour

The situation is complicated for Arkea B&B Hotels. Despite a victory in the Tour de France, a 2nd place in the Flèche Wallonne and a podium in the Ronde, making the season successful from a media point of view, the accounting situation at the end of 2024 is catastrophic. The Breton team is the first to be relegated, being 19th. And above all, his transfer window was painful. No major recruits and almost only neo pros, who will not be able to influence the results of the season to the extent that Arkea would need. The two podiums in the classics are also a miracle given the scenarios. We are even afraid that Arkea will not do better in 2025. Hopes rest on two runners: Kévin Vauquelin, the talented stage runner and Arnaud Démare, a former great sprinter who has nevertheless been struggling for 2 years. They will have to have a crazy season otherwise, Arkea risks finishing outside the top 18 and outside the top 20 in the 2025 season, which would prevent them from obtaining invitations. A situation which would be catastrophic for the team and which worries us a lot.

Probability of being invited to all World Tours: 10%

Probability of retention: 10%

• Team Lotto Pro Cycling ????????

• Israel Premier Tech????????

• Intermarché Wanty ????????

• You love ????????

• Team Pic Nic Post NL ????????

In Pro Teams but invited to all WT

In Pro Teams and guest on the classics