International migration continues to increase in Quebec, while the opposite is happening in Ontario and British Columbia. This contrast could exacerbate the challenges of the Quebec rental market, already under pressure.
Posted at 11:14 a.m.
A little more than 105,000 immigrants and non-permanent residents arrived in Quebec between January and June 2024, according to data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). For the same period last year, that number stood at 92,631, an increase of about 14%.
Francis Cortellino is working these days to put the finishing touches on CMHC’s annual rental market study, which will be published in mid-December. This analysis, always eagerly awaited by groups of tenants and owners, will take stock of the housing crisis which is raging almost everywhere in the Montreal region and elsewhere in Quebec.
Given the current debate on immigration, Mr. Cortellino thought it appropriate to share on the LinkedIn network on Friday his findings on the most recent figures on the subject of international migration at his disposal.
“We expect another very strong year,” explained Francis Cortellino, economist at CMHC. “But when I went to see the other provinces, I was a little surprised to see that [le nombre de nouveaux arrivants] was decreasing. »
During the same period, in Ontario and British Columbia, the number of new immigrants and non-permanent residents decreased by 18% and 12.7%, respectively, from 2023 to 2024.
Despite this drop, the number of new arrivals still remains higher in Ontario than in Quebec, standing at 207,656 in the first six months of 2024. Quebec then finds itself ahead of British Columbia, which had 79,856 for the same period.
For the moment, CMHC only has data from January to June 2024. “It will be interesting to follow the data for the last six months of 2024 to see if this observation holds,” added Mr. Cortellino.
These data do not, however, reflect immigrants who left the country. There are around 2,500 in Quebec, noted Francis Cortellino, which represents around 2.4% of the 105,000 new arrivals.
Market pressure
On October 26, the federal government revised its permanent immigration thresholds and announced that the number of permanent residents would increase from 485,000 to 395,000 by 2025. The initial target had been set at 500,000 permanent immigrants, despite the housing crisis.
“There are several factors that cause the rental market to be under pressure. At the moment, the strong growth in the population is one of them,” said Mr. Cortellino, specifying that international migration represents a significant part of demographic growth.
But the specialist also clarified that international migration is not the only factor explaining the high demand for housing: “Young people remain renters much more than before,” he added.
