It hasn’t escaped your notice, it’s cold. Some will say “nothing could be more normal, it’s winter”. Others will complain of too cold weather which is not “worthy of the South of France”. Finally, we also see a lot of comments like “lol global warming”. In the middle of all this, we decided to analyze the temperatures we currently have in our region and to present to you the figures and statistics which will speak for themselves.
A few days ago, we had a descent of cold air over France in a northerly flow. Mistral and tramontane blew strongly and reinforced this sometimes icy feeling. Since then, the wind has lost ground and the frosts have increased. They were even strong in areas that were usually cold. We passed the middle of January. What is really happening in this first half of January?
Carte : Tropicalitdbits
Above, we have put you the map of January 14 which is the coldest day across the country since February 2018. For example, we had -6.1°C in Montpellier-Fréjorgues, -4.1 °C in Perpignan-Rivesaltes, -9.8°C in Mende. Note that -10°C was exceeded in places. The frosts were numerous and severe, but is that exceptional?
It all depends on the perspective we take. If we just look at the last few years that have been unseasonably mild, yes, we’ve had some very cold days. If we zoom out a little further, we are far from the cold records in the region. We are far from the -18.8°C in Mende in 1987 or even the -15°C in Montpellier in 1947.
Map: Weather sky
In addition, it should be noted that this is essentially cold weather inversions unlike real cold waves. What are the differences? Here we are in an anticyclonic period. High pressures block air masses. Cold air, heavier than warm air, crashes close to the ground while softer air ends up at altitude. This is why this January 14, we find -10°C in the plains but +1.2°C at the summit of Aigoual.
-Despite this relative cold, for the moment, we have a first half of January generally within seasonal averages. Temperatures are +0.3°C above average in Perpignan, -0.1°C in Nîmes, -0.4°C in Montpellier, +1.8°C in Aigoual or even +0, 2°C in Sète. We can see it clearly, some sectors are above, others below but overall, we had seasonal temperatures due to a marked mildness at the start of the month which balanced out the cold of the last few days.
Carte : Tropicaltidbits
In conclusion, we had a mild period at the start of the month then a colder period around mid-January. These two periods generally cancel each other out, placing us in temperatures around average. In addition, it is important to specify that this cold occurs under anticyclone. Indeed, despite the numerous frosts, snow is very rare in Lozère for example. It is increasingly difficult to combine humidity and cold in our winters.
Humidity should be increasing by the end of January with an Oceanic low pressure track which will intensify. However, this will be accompanied by milder temperatures (see map above). If this is confirmed, it has a good chance of moving us into the positive for the month of January. In the end, this short cold period will have been lost in the middle of an ocean of sweetness. This is what characterizes global warming. Cold periods are still possible. They are only rarer, shorter and less intense, unlike mild/hot periods.
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