There are still three Grands Prix (and a sprint) remaining before the longest season in F1 history comes to a close. And contrary to what we feared after the Red Bull doubles at the start of the year, there is still much to look forward to and play for in Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
An update on the five most stimulating issues at the end of the year…
Verstappen: a coronation that is nothing more than a formality?
With 62 points ahead of Lando Norris, Max Verstappen could pocket a 4th title (and thus join Alain Prost and Sebastian Vettel) at the next Grand Prix in Las Vegas. The scenarios are numerous, but simple: if he finishes ahead of Norris or if his rival finishes beyond 9th place, the Dutchman will be crowned. Even in the event of a poor performance, he just needs to stay in the points to convert the try. In short, barring a major accident, this title seems to be just a formality.
But behind this announced coronation, a historical curiosity looms. Red Bull remains stuck at 544 points, well behind McLaren (593 points) and Ferrari (557 points), and could therefore finish 3rd among the constructors. It would be a first for more than 40 years (Brabham in 1980 with Alan Jones): a driver crowned world champion while his team finished 3rd in the team standings.
Whose fault is it? To a too often failing Sergio Pérez, who clearly cost his team.
McLaren vs Ferrari: who will return to the top?
With a 36-point lead over Ferrari and 49 over Red Bull, McLaren holds the reins in a strategic battle for the title. But this leadership is fragile, and the calendar of the last three races could shake things up.
Ferrari seems to have an advantage in Las Vegas, thanks to its engine power and the long straight lines of the track. Charles Leclerc underlined it: if the Scuderia controls tire temperatures (by heating them well) in Nevada, it can achieve a big success.
McLaren, on the other hand, should be more at home on the Qatar and Abu Dhabi circuits, where precision in fast corners and tire wear will play a key role. The key to success, however, will perhaps be Piastri: too irregular, particularly in qualifying, the Australian will have to raise his level of play.
Red Bull, despite Verstappen, seems left behind, largely because of Pérez's flaws.
Will McLaren F1 be able to win a historic first title since 1999 and Ferrari since 2008? What is certain is that a legend will return to the top of F1!
The 30 million euro fight for 6th place
The battle for 6th place manufacturers, between Alpine (49 points), Haas (46 points) and Racing Bulls (44 points), is not limited to a question of prestige. Stake ? Nearly 30 million euros in bonuses. For teams seeking financial stability, this is a vital issue.
Haas, thanks to its recent developments which have proven their effectiveness, seems slightly better armed. Nico Hülkenberg, consistent and efficient, could be their trump card, but even Magnussen has woken up during these last GPs.
Alpine is banking on the pure talent of its drivers, Ocon and Gasly, who shone in the rain at Interlagos, but even the blue car has progressed, thanks to the developments introduced in Austin. But in Las Vegas and then in the Middle East, engine power and tire management will be major challenges. And these are not the strong points of Alpine F1 (that's an understatement).
RB F1, finally, sees its drivers Tsunoda and Lawson forced to perform. With a Red Bull driver in their sights to replace Pérez, they have every interest in proving their worth in these last three races.
Williams F1: Colapinto must not make a mistake if he wants to replace Doohan or Perez
It's the surprise of the second half of the season. Logan Sargeant's replacement at Williams F1, Franco Colapinto, with very convincing recent performances, seems on the verge of taking the starting place, in 2025, from Sergio Perez or Jack Doohan… who had nevertheless been announced at Alpine F1. Doohan, already in crisis of confidence even before being established at Enstone, sees his future compromised. Flavio Briatore, never a man to bother with scruples, could well tear up Doohan's contract without hesitation to install the Argentinian. His lack of denial of the latest rumors… speaks volumes.
The Las Vegas circuit could be decisive. If Franco Colapinto does not make a mistake on a tricky and unknown circuit, he will still have scored points in the head of Flavio Briatore. But the young driver will have to be impeccable, because a misstep would give Doohan reason for hope.
Top 10 drivers: who will have the place of honor?
The battle for 10th place in the drivers' standings remains open, and the gaps are minimal. Nico Hülkenberg (31 points) leads, but behind him, Yuki Tsunoda (28), Pierre Gasly (26), Lance Stroll (24) and Esteban Ocon (23) remain in ambush.
Hülkenberg, faithful to his consistency, seems favorite. Tsunoda, always capable of brilliant strokes, could benefit from the added motivation of proving that he deserves a Red Bull wheel. Even if he seems rather to give in to the pressure these last Grands Prix.
Gasly and Ocon, masters in the rain at Interlagos, will have more difficulty shining in the arid conditions of the remaining circuits. But they remain serious outsiders.
Stroll, finally, is the eternal unpredictable: invisible for 10 races, capable of an exploit the next.
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