While the International Monetary Fund is concerned about the increase in public debt of the member states of this sub-regional organization. Cameroonian President Paul Biya has warned his peers that if nothing is done, Cémac will face disastrous consequences, both for member countries, but also for the sub-region.
From now on, the urgency for the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa is to face inflation exceeding the convergence thresholds, prevent a risk of over-indebtedness and stem the decline in external reserves.
For Thierry Ndong, economic affairs journalist in Yaoundé, the risk of a monetary crisis looms, despite oil prices favorable to the Cémac countries.
“If we stick to the IMF, the World Bank and, to a certain extent, the Banque de France where the operations account of the central bank of the Cémac countries is housed…if we stick to therefore to these institutions, the economic situation of the Cémac zone is worrying. The economic indicators are practically all in the red.”, Ndong said.
According to the latest report (2023-2024) from the United Nations Development Program, the Cémac States are struggling in terms of human development, despite significant geological resources. This report reveals very weak indicators on the well-being of populations.
If, at the political level, we explain this poor economic situation by the numerous exogenous and endogenous shocks of recent years, notably Covid-19 and climate change, experts mainly point to governance.
“We would practically gain 2% growth”
Djimadoum Mandekor, specialist in economics and finance and former official of the Bank of Central African States, believes that governance is the basis of inclusive economic growth.
“I believe that there were IMF studies which indicated that if we had the same level of governance as the UEMOA, we would practically gain 2% in GDP growth rate. So, you see how much, I would say, the question of governance is important to once again ensure growth, today, which everyone calls to be inclusive, for the good of more than 60 million Africans in its central part.”, regrets Mandekor.
A governance problem?
While various media outlets have raised the possibility of a devaluation of the CFA franc in recent days, the Cameroonian presidency has indicated that no monetary adjustment is on the agenda. For economist Djimadoum Mandekor, Cémac needs reforms.
“We must rationalize expenditure, move towards the most socially and economically useful expenditure. And the Cémac treaty has existed since March 1994. Thirty years later, I think it would be good to stop and look. integration is useful, integration is an element of dynamism for growth.”he says.
Cémac includes six Central African countries: Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Republic of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Chad.
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