On Tuesday, September 10, low-cost airline EasyJet announced the closure of its base in Toulouse, putting 125 employees in the hot seat. Last May, Ryanair, Europe’s leading airline, also decided to close its base in Bordeaux and suspend all flights from November. This decision was quickly followed by the signing of a partnership with EasyJet and the opening of two new routes to fill the gap. In August, Due to lack of passengers, Air France’s low-cost company, Transavia, has cancelled the Pau-Paris route.
Indeed, the announcements follow one another and are similar, raising not only concerns about the fate of employees, but also questions about the future of air services in the region. How can we explain these successive departures and cancellations? Is this dynamic likely to continue? Will travelers eventually have to get back into the habit of departing exclusively from Paris? Capital attempts to understand the situation by examining three criteria that impact air transport.
Evolution of habits after the Covid crisis
Covid-19 has profoundly changed our behavior. From this period, we have kept certain habits. The generalization of teleworking has allowed many people who regularly travel for business between their home and another city in France to stay at home and focus on videoconferencing. This has saved these people time, organization and money, but has also caused a regular loss of customers for airlines, especially those that often traveled first class.
“Each company has its own dynamics, however there is a real impact of the decrease in business customers. The airports that depend most on this type of demand, such as Bordeaux for example, are suffering more than those based in Marseille or Lyon, which are mainly focused on leisure travel.“, explains Nicolas Hénin, Deputy CEO of Transavia. Between 2022 and 2023, Air traffic departing from or arriving in France increased by 11%an increase particularly due “for leisure or VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) type travel”, Nicolas Hénin explains that radial connections such as Toulouse-Paris or Toulouse-Lyon do not have the same dynamics at all as those connecting Toulouse-Malaga or the Canary Islands.
Increased competitive pressure from the railway sector
Another explanation is the growing competition from rail. The need to reduce the carbon footprint and to think more carefully about means of transport encourages people to favour trains over planes. This logic is pushing more and more people and companies to opt for trains for short journeys. This is in line with the call made by the government and confirmed by the decree of 6 December 2022, which prohibits flights when a rail alternative of less than 2h30 is available.
“However, there will always be a need for the aircraft“, retorts the commercial director of Transavia. For him, the plane still has a bright future ahead of it, whether for foreign destinations or on board interregional routes: “There are still train journeys that exceed 4 or 5 hours, in these cases, the demand for the plane persists which allows to maintain a program in the region.»
Will Transavia be affected by the epidemic of base closures?
The low-cost airline Air France does not seem worried.Currently, we remain stable. We are certainly not recording growth, but we are not going to close any connections or increase volumes either,” explains Nicolas Hénin. It must be said that Transavia’s objective, in the medium term, is to completely take over Orly by 2026, an airport that Air France wants to divest itself of. However, Transavia reserves the right to react according to the opportunities that arise in the French regions, as was the case with the withdrawal of Ryanair from Bordeaux, which represented 40% of the airport’s offer : “Space has become available, we have taken it! Starting this winter, we will launch six connections from Bordeaux to Seville, Agadir, Marseille, among others..” Concerning Marseille, a new connection will link Marseille-Cairo next summer and other new destinations will be revealed on October 1st.
