“Illusory”: Javier Milei and Donald Trump: a feverish romance?

They admire each other, congratulate each other, embrace each other: the Argentinian Javier Milei in power for a year, and Donald Trump invested on Monday, display ideological and personal affinities, destined to materialize in a form of alliance or agreement, with still uncertain contours.

The ultra-liberal Milei, who trumpets his stabilization of the Argentine economy through traumatic austerity, does not budge and has stated it on several occasions: the two “most important politicians on planet Earth” are Donald Trump , and him.

From Mar-a-Lago, Florida, where Milei met with Trump in November, to the CPAC forums, a conservative mass of which Buenos Aires hosted a stage, there is no shortage of opportunities to sing about the affinities between the two leaders of State: on “ideas of freedom”, deregulation, the reaction against “wokism” or “global socialism”, within a “right-wing international”.

They also share a fascination with the billionaire boss of X and Tesla Elon Musk, charged by Trump with a commission for “governmental efficiency”.

Musk, whom Milei has already met several times, whom he is assiduously courting to invest in Argentina, and admires as a “Thomas Edison of the 21st century” in reference to the American inventor and industrialist of the 19-20th century.

China also weighs

“It is clear that there will be a very strong political affinity: Argentina will be very aligned with the priorities of the United States, both at the global and regional level,” predicted to AFP Ariel Gonzalez Levaggi, of the Argentine Council for International Relations.

“The friendship between Trump and Milei goes beyond the Argentine leader’s constant praise of his counterpart,” agrees Benjamin Gedan, Latin America director at the Wilson Center think tank. “Milei has established himself as one of Trump’s most important foreign allies.”

Important, really? Jorgue Argüello, who was Argentinian ambassador in Washington under three presidents (Obama, Trump, Biden) assures “that he never saw a particular interest not only for Argentina, but for Latin America”. It is only when there is the presence in the region of “external actors like China, Russia, that alarm signals go off” in Washington, he adds.

A China, a key partner of Argentina – second trading partner after Brazil – with which Milei will have to reckon. Already counts, in reality, as shown by his meeting with Xi Jinping in November in Rio, on the sidelines of the G20, where both were mutually invited. Or the extension for one year of a currency exchange agreement, known as “swap”, for the equivalent of five billion dollars, oxygen for Argentina’s foreign exchange reserves.

In addition, the example of the recent megaport financed by China in Peru attests to an infrastructure investment capacity “that the United States cannot offer”, recalls Alejandro Frenkel, expert in international relations at the University of San Diego. Martin.

“At times he (Milei) looks like a Trumpist capable of accepting that at the same time he needs Xi” Jinping, summarizes the daily La Nacion, seeing a pragmatic trait of the Argentine president, beyond his incendiary rhetoric.

Furthermore, if Milei did not fail to welcome Trump’s re-election as the revalidation of his own rise and his ideas, analysts are very divided on the real advantage that Argentina could derive from a systematic alignment with Washington .

What help from Trump?

An indulgence from the IMF, to which Argentina is repaying a record loan of $44 billion granted (with the support of Trump) in 2018? “Perhaps some additional disbursement could be released,” speculates Ariel Gonzalez Levaggi. But a new deal, a new loan? “Difficultly.”

Especially since Trump appointed to the State Department for Latin America the former head of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Mauricio Claver-Carone, in the past critical of Milei’s management. Who believed, a few months ago, that banking on Trump lobbying for more IMF funds is “an illusion”, a “waste of time”.

And beyond the proclaimed affinities, Trump and Milei also have marked differences: on immigration, which for the Argentinian is not a subject. On free trade: the American is a protectionist, a supporter of customs tariffs protecting national industry while Milei is an ardent defender of the open economy.

“In this context, Milei could find himself very disappointed if Trump imposes new customs duties on the whole world, including on Argentine exports,” said Claudio Loser, former head of the Western Hemisphere of the IMF. “Eventually,” he suggests, “they could conclude a bilateral free trade agreement.” “But not in the short term.” A feverish idyll, perhaps, but one that stands the test of time and concrete gestures.