Delays and resignation of Trudeau | Toronto-Quebec train project threatened

Canadians who hoped that the high-frequency train project between Toronto and Quebec would move forward this year will instead see further delays, and the prospect of a federal election makes the schedule more uncertain than ever.

Late last year, the federal government requested an extension of tenders for the construction of the rail corridor, which could push back the selection of a private partner by several months, beyond the deadline initial set at the end of 2024.

This postponement constitutes a setback for a project which should extend over more than a decade. Some observers fear that the entire project will be called into question by a possible change of government as the departure of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau approaches.

Selecting a consortium to lead the project during its planning and construction phases – and to operate and maintain it thereafter – is a key step in the process. The Department of Transportation had said the successful contractor, who would design, build and operate the tracks, was expected to be announced by late fall 2024.

“Everyone I know who is involved in the rail industry has been waiting with bated breath because they thought this announcement would come in early December,” said Terry Johnson, president of passenger advocacy group Transport Action Canada .

In 2021, the federal Liberals presented plans for a new rail corridor with stops in Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Montreal, Laval, Trois-Rivières and Quebec. At the time, Ottawa estimated the cost between 6 and 12 billion.

The goal was to carry more passengers faster and more often than VIA Rail’s delay-plagued trains, whose aging fleet runs on tracks largely owned by Canadian National Railway Company (CN ), which gives priority to freight trains.

Mr. Johnson also fears that delaying the timetable will make it easier for new leaders in Ottawa to abandon the project altogether. Last Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would resign after the Liberal leadership race and prorogued Parliament until March 24. His replacement will face a vote of confidence that could bring down the government, trigger elections and lead to a conservative tidal wave.

“Any change of government will almost certainly result in a process of re-examining everything the previous government did before, either confirming it or changing it in some way,” Mr Johnson stressed.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s office did not directly respond to questions about his support for the project.

“After nearly a decade of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government, there is no high-frequency train project to speak of. It does not exist,” Conservative Party transportation spokesperson Philip Lawrence wrote in an email.

Pierre Barrieau, who teaches transportation and urban planning at the University of Montreal, says the competing proposals present complex plans that require in-depth analysis and that the months-long delays for the megaproject should not surprise the public.

“The three offers are fundamentally not about the same thing. One could have said: “I’m building a tunnel here”, the other would make a diversion to another place. One might say 250 kilometers an hour, the other might say 375.”

The three consortia selected to submit proposals are: Cadence, which includes AtkinsRéalis (formerly SNC-Lavalin) and Air Canada; Intercity Rail Developers, which includes DF Canada Infrastructure Group of Montreal billionaire André Desmarais; and QConnexiON Rail Partners, which includes WSP Canada.

No contract awarded

The call for tenders asked each of the three groups to submit two offers: one for a conventional rail network where trains would travel at 200 km/h (the current limit is around 160 km/h) and the another for a high-speed rail corridor.

“It’s really difficult to compare a Hyundai Tucson to a Porsche,” Mr. Barrieau said, adding that this kind of delay, while undesirable, is normal for a project of this size.

“Megaprojects are always late. All megaprojects almost always have cost overruns,” he said.

Federal Transport Minister Anita Anand’s office acknowledged extensions were “the norm”, with the possibility included in the request for proposals.

“No contract has been awarded to a consortium for the Quebec-Toronto corridor rail project. I look forward to sharing more information when the time comes,” M wrote^me Anand by email.

The delayed announcement follows previous delays as well as multiple failed high-speed rail projects in recent decades.

The federal government slowed down the fast passenger rail timetable in July 2023, when then-Transport Minister Omar Alghabra said he hoped the line would be operational by the mid-2030s rather than ‘at the start of the decade, as he had previously planned.

The corridor between Toronto and Quebec would pass through an almost entirely new railway on land largely owned by the two Canadian railway giants, CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City.

It could require hundreds of millions of dollars just to build underpasses, since the lines would not be able to accommodate road crossings, according to Transport Canada. Other infrastructure, such as fencing, would also be required, in addition to buy-in from a multitude of local and provincial governments.

Martin Imbleau, who is leading the project, predicted the corridor would handle 17 million passengers a year by mid-century.