The global economy is currently undergoing a major transformation phase, characterized by the gradual stabilization of global supply chains and the easing of inflationary pressures. Central banks of major economies have initiated a review of their restrictive monetary policies, while emerging markets demonstrate increased resilience in the face of persistent economic challenges. This more favorable international economic climate directly influences the growth prospects of the African continent.
An economic recovery bringing hope
The latest projections of Moody’s Ratings outline an encouraging horizon for sub-Saharan Africa, with expected economic growth to 4.2% in 2025, up from 3.8% estimated for 2024. This progression reflects a positive dynamic after a decade marked by successive turbulences, notably the fall in raw material prices between 2014 and 2016 , the Covid-19 health crisis, and the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on global inflation. Improving financial conditions and increased investment in infrastructure and energy are the main drivers of this anticipated growth.
Structural reforms as catalysts for development
The dynamics of economic transformation vary according to the countries of the region. THE Nigeria is accelerating the modernization of its financial system to stimulate private investment and diversify its economy beyond the oil sector. There Democratic Republic of Congo strengthens its attractiveness in the mining sector, particularly for minerals essential to the global energy transition. The Namibiafor her part, develops ambitious renewable energy projects while optimizing the exploitation of its natural resources, thus attracting international investors seduced by its stability and energy potential.
Fragilities and gray areas: points of vigilance for 2025
Sub-Saharan Africa’s upward trajectory remains punctuated by obstacles that require special attention. Debt service continues to burden public finances with interest rates which, despite their downward trend, still exceed pre-pandemic levels. This situation forces many States to juggle essential investments and financial obligations. Climate disruption is emerging as a tangible threat to local economies, as in Mali and at Niger where repeated droughts compromise agricultural production and livestock breeding, key sectors for their growth. The instability of the dollar, likely to appreciate in 2025, raises the specter of an increase in debts denominated in foreign currencies. Persistent security challenges in the Sahel strip and the Great Lakes region impact regional trade and investments. These combined factors remind us that regional economic growth, as promising as it may be, remains dependent on a complex balance between security stability, environmental resilience and financial health. Geopolitical issues around strategic natural resources like cobalt and lithium add an additional layer of complexity to the region’s economic outlook.
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