These words are those of Francis Cortellino, analyst for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
In Granby, the vacancy rate is 0.8% for its 4½ housing stock.
— SL
In 2023, the vacancy rate — all housing combined — was 0.5% in Granby.
The 4½ represented the majority (61% precisely) of the 10,454 private housing units identified in Granby by CMHC towards the end of 2024.
This number does not include social housing (housing co-ops, NPOs and housing stock of the Haute-Yamaska Rouville Housing Office).
“Very, very few apartments available”
Only 4½ vacancy rate data is available for 2024 in Granby, as CMHC surveys did not make it possible to determine those for studios, 3½ and 5½ and more.
The fault, according to Mr. Cortellino, is both the too low number of respondents to the survey, as well as the possible too great volatility of the results obtained.
“There are very, very few rental apartments available in the region,” however, Mr. Cortellino confirmed to The Voice of the EastFriday.
In Cowansville, the vacancy rate for all types of housing combined was 1.2% in 2024. The same as the previous year.
Upward pressure on rents
Low vacancy rates rhyme with major rent increases, confirms Mr. Cortellino.
This was still the case in 2024 in the region.
In Cowansville, average rents increased by 8% from 2023 to 2024.
“What we also often notice currently is that low vacancy rates are accompanied by very strong rent increases, much higher than inflation.”
— Francis Cortellino, analyst at SCHL
In Granby, although we do not have this data, “but the evolution in regions of similar size (from 50,000 to 100,000 inhabitants) suggests a fairly strong increase in rents,” indicates the CMHC analyst.
In regions with 50,000 to 100,000 inhabitants (Saint-Hyacinthe, Shawinigan, Joliette, Rimouski), the increase in rents was 7% for 4½, from 2023 to 2024, compared to 8% from 2022 to 2023.
In Granby, rents for 4½ units increased by 9.7% from 2022 to 2023.
The average rent for a 4½ on the private market was $1,129 in Granby in October 2024, and $1,010 in Cowansville.
The 3% vacancy rate, a point of balance?
“A market is considered to be in equilibrium when the vacancy rate is around 3%. Below this threshold, there is a situation of shortage,” recalled Philippe Hurteau, researcher at the Institute for Socio-Economic Research and Information (IRIS), in a 2017 publication, itself referring to a publication by the Society. housing of Quebec of 2014.
Construction of the Unitains building, on Court Street in Granby, continues to progress at a good pace. (Stéphane Champagne/La Voix de l’Est)
According to our CMHC analyst, this is not necessarily the case.
“We are often attributed the 3% vacancy rate as being a balance point, but this does not come from CMHC,” he begins by specifying.
“It is difficult to establish such a level of balance,” says Mr. Cortellino. The equilibrium rate may be different from one region to another, and could even vary over time.”
However, with a vacancy rate of up to 1%, “it is very difficult for tenants” to find housing.
According to our analyst, we have to go back around thirty years to find vacancy rates of 6-7%, accompanied by minimal rent increases, “0 or 1%”.
We have to go back to 2016 to find a vacancy rate above 3% in Granby (3.1% in this case).
One thing is certain: “the current vacancy rates and the rent increases that we have mean that we are not at that balance on the market.”
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