According to a study recently published in Germany, the heat engine could still live for at least a hundred years.
For several years now, the thermal car has been criticized from all sides, and everything is done to make it disappear. And for good reason, the European Union has set the ambitious objective of banning the sale of new thermal vehicles by 2035 to reduce CO2 emissions in the automotive sector. Thus, the transition to electric vehicles appears to be the main path to follow to achieve this decarbonization.
The thermal should live for a long time
However, this direction is far from unanimous, particularly among manufacturers and certain experts who doubt the feasibility of this objective. If the European Union maintains the course of 2035, this would mean that in the next fifteen years, the majority thermal vehicles could disappear from European roads However, skeptics point out that many manufacturers are already behind schedule on their electrification targets, which could jeopardize the deadline. In addition, the production of EVs still involves challenges. technical and logistical, without forgetting colossal investments to transform current production chains Among the discordant voices, that of. Ferdinand DudenhöfferGerman economist and co-founder of the automotive research agency CAR, stands out. For him, the internal combustion engine is not about to disappear and could even remain in use for another century. He puts forward several arguments to justify his point of view, including government policies and the dynamics of the current automobile market.
Still a promising future
According to Dudenhöffer, some governments, including Germany, seem hesitant about the idea of massively promoting electric cars. The expert notes that Berlin recently ended subsidies to help purchase electric vehicles, a decision that could slow the adoption of these models by the general public. This reduction in financial incentives makes zero-emission cars less attractive compared to thermal vehicles, which sometimes benefit from greater discounts. Thus, many consumers could turn to more affordable thermal models. Another argument put forward by Dudenhöffer concerns profitability for manufacturers. According to him, thermal cars generate higher profit margins than EVs, which makes the latter less attractive from a commercial point of view. “Given the higher profit margins on combustion engine cars, it is easier to provide discounts on them. With the removal of the premium for electric cars, automobile brands sometimes even record losses on these models,” explains the economist.
Thus, despite political pressure to make a rapid transition to electric, it seems that manufacturers are still attached to thermal cars. Dudenhöffer believes that this attachment could make it difficult to meet the 2035 deadline. Indeed, production challenges, high costs and technological uncertainties could lead manufacturers to slow down the transition. Thus, if the future of the automobile sector remains uncertain, the idea of a total disappearance of thermal engines in 2035 seems increasingly called into question.
Related News :